Assessments Say Iraq Needs $55 Billion for Rebuilding

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By Steven R. Weisman

New York Times
October 2, 2003

A team of economic specialists led by the World Bank and the United Nations has determined that Iraq needs $36 billion for reconstruction over the next four years. This would be in addition to a separate assessment by the American-led occupation of $19 billion for a different set of needs in Iraq over the same period, diplomats and economists said Wednesday. The latest calculation brings to $55 billion the amount that experts say Iraq needs to rebuild everything from health care to infrastructure to agriculture and the training of police officers and other security personnel, the officials said.


Both assessments - not to be confused with the Bush administration's current request before Congress of $20 billion in nonmilitary aid - were prepared ahead of a donors conference scheduled for Oct. 23-24 in Madrid, which Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and other top American officials are expected to attend. These larger numbers have begun to circulate even as American officials admit they are having trouble getting promises for much more than $1 billion at Madrid. But the administration is seeking approval of a United Nations Security Council resolution, a new draft of which it circulated Wednesday, that it hopes will encourage more donations.

Many in Congress, meanwhile, are balking at the administration's request for $20 billion in nonmilitary aid, $5 billion of it for training security personnel, saying they are not clear on what exactly is needed now or in the next few years. Lawmakers complained Wednesday that they had been given too vague an accounting of what happened to the $79 billion that Congress approved for Iraq and Afghanistan last April. As the debate opened Wednesday on the administration's current $87 billion spending request, senators said they expected dozens of amendments that would add new reporting requirements and audits. Also likely are amendments to bar noncompetitive bidding on contracts like the one awarded to Halliburton, where Vice President Dick Cheney served as chairman before joining the Bush campaign in 2000.

While Congress began to grapple with the administration over its spending request, American, European, Japanese and Arab envoys met in Madrid Wednesday to make their own assessment of Iraq's needs. This separate assessment was confirmed by knowledgeable officials on Wednesday as some numbers began to leak out. According to these officials, Iraq's needs in 14 different sectors - including health, education, water and electricity - come to $9.3 billion for 2004 and another $26.3 billion over the next three years, for a total of $36 billion through 2007.

Separately, the officials said that the Bush administration had come up with its own list of needs in areas like the oil industry and security, which are not covered by the United Nations and World Bank assessments. The American assessment comes to $19 billion. It was not clear on Wednesday evening what part of the $55 billion would be met by the United States and what part would be met by international donors. But many officials say that the early hope for billions of dollars from wealthy countries is fading rapidly.

In part, American officials say, donor nations are balking at the large sums, especially after President Bush's top aides had argued that Iraq was so rich with oil reserves it could virtually pay for its own revitalization. French and German leaders cite the war and President Bush himself - both still deeply unpopular in Europe - as another reason they will have a hard time persuading their people to put up much money. The European Union has suggested putting up $250 million, according to administration officials, who say they are shocked at such a small sum. Canada says it may give about $200 million, and Japanese officials are reported by news organizations in Tokyo to be considering something in the range of $1 billion. But few officials in the administration say they are sure what the final sum will be. A lot depends, they say, on the reception accorded the new American resolution on Iraq, which administration officials say can pass the Security Council but not necessarily unanimously.

As the numbers relating to Iraq's needs began leaking Wednesday, many things remained unclear. International economic officials say that the World Bank and the United Nations Development Fund, which came up with the $36 billion figure, have been scrupulous in assessing Iraq's needs in 14 separate sectors. These officials made no effort to suggest where the money would come from.

Meanwhile, the American-led occupation administration, the Coalition Provisional Authority, has estimated a separate set of needs for entirely different sorts of projects - notably oil and security - at $19 billion. Still more confusion was stirred by the Bush administration's request for $20 billion from Congress for 2004. If that money is approved, it will pay for some of the needs assessed by the United Nations and the World Bank, and some assessed by the American-led occupation, various officials said. One thing everyone agreed on: the numbers are likely to be disputed and amended in the weeks and months to come as the debate over the situation in Iraq intensifies.


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