August 25, 2000
President Laurent Kabila reportedly agrees to allow an international peacekeeping force into the civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Though he still enjoys the support of one important player in the African wars, Zimbabwe, Kabila's change of heart is probably due to pressure from the region's most powerful player, South Africa.
In a significant reversal, President Laurent Kabila has authorized the deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping mission into the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), local television reported on Aug. 24. The U.N. mission was to deploy earlier this year - but the government refused to allow it to enter the country.
Kabila's change of heart is probably due to indirect pressure from South Africa. One of Kabila's closest supporters, the government of Angola, recently warned that it would discontinue support if the DRC did not allow the U.N. peacekeeping mission to go forward. South Africa supports the U.N. deployment and has pressured Kabila's allies to withdraw support. Without Angolan help, Kabila would find it difficult to keep power.
Southern African wars are like spider webs with many different interwoven threads. The civil war in the DRC involves six different countries and connections to the civil wars in Angola, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Sudan. The many players have made resolving any one conflict almost impossible.
These wars make it hard for the region's most important nation, South Africa, to expand its economy; South African companies are the engines of business throughout the area. To achieve this peace and stability, South Africa withdrew support for rebel movements in Angola, and the DRC launched a diplomatic and economic offensive to bring peace to the region.
Angola's warning to Kabila is most likely the result of pressure from Pretoria. After a visit to Pretoria on Aug. 16, the Chief of Staff for Angola's Armed Forces, Joao de Matos, reversed the military's longstanding position, agreed to peace talks and offered amnesty to rebel leader Jonas Savimbi. A few days later, an Angolan newspaper, Agora, reported that President dos Santos warned Kabila that his allies - namely Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe - would withdraw support if the DRC government didn't implement a cease- fire agreement.
The Angolan and Namibian troops - more than 5,000 to 6,000 - are in the southwest. These forces support Kabila in his offensives into the northwest. According to the Namibian, a newspaper, Angola has sent tanks and aircraft to Kabila's aid.
Kabila still enjoys support from one important player - the government of Zimbabwe. South Africa and Zimbabwe often clash over regional security issues, and Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has refused Pretoria's pleas to withdraw. Zimbabwe's troops may outnumber Luanda's and Windhoek's forces by several thousand troops and are mostly in the southeast near the diamond mines.
Even with Mugabe's support, Kabila would find it difficult to continue his war efforts without Angolan and Namibian backing.