By Henk-Jan Brinkman
April 23, 2008
1. Introduction
2. High food prices
• Volatility
• Higher, remain higher
• Factors:
• Demand: emerging markets (changing consumption patterns), biofuels
• Supply shocks, mostly weather-related
low stocks ? volatility
• Oil price:
• Old: whole value chain (fertilizer, mechanisation, transport);
• New: output prices
• Institutional investment
• Export restrictions
• [Future food prices are surrounded by uncertainty:
• Temporary factors: drought in Australia, disease in China, recession in US
• Structural: changing demand patterns, higher fuel prices, climate change] [skipped]
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