By Harry Sterling
Will Canada win a seat on the United Nations Security Council on Oct. 12 because of Prime Minister Stephen Harper or despite him? That is the question being asked as analysts try to calculate whether Canada will garner more votes than Portugal for one of the two seats designated for its regional group, Germany already being a shoo-in to take one of them.
Canada has traditionally faced little difficulty securing a two-year term on the Security Council, having held one of the non-permanent seats six times since 1946. But that hasn't been the case this time.
Some believe this turn of events can be directly attributed to Harper himself. They are convinced the prime minister's apparent indifferent attitude toward the value of the United Nations resulted in Canada downplaying the importance of that international body.
Others, less charitably, have regarded Canada's weakened image at the UN as directly tied to Harper's ideologically driven views on international issues. His pro-Israel policies are cited as an example of his lack of balance on issues affecting many Middle East countries.
It's apparent Canadian policies under Harper will play a significant role on Oct. 12 when the UN's 192 member states vote.
Many African nations have made it abundantly clear they believe he has given sub-Saharan countries far less attention and support than traditional under previous Canadian governments, whether Liberal or Conservative, cancelling bilateral aid to eight African states. In addition, African diplomats in Ottawa complain it's near impossible to gain access to government officials to make their own governments' views known on important issues.
They see his recent initiative on promoting funds for maternal and child care and his recent promise of $540 million for combating communicable diseases as belated attempts to buy African goodwill and votes.
Portugal itself has been particularly assiduous in trying to win African support, especially among smaller African nations.
Even members of Canada's Department of Foreign Affairs have complained that Harper was told two years ago that something had to be done if Canada had any chance of sitting on the Security Council again.
While Canada seemingly can count on the 14 nations of the Caribbean region to vote in its favour -- thanks to $600 million in aid for that region -- it's not clear how many Latin American nations will join them, since some, like Venezuela and Cuba, have been criticized by Harper. The region's cultural links with Spain and Portugal may also help Lisbon, though countries like Chile have publicly indicated support for Canada, and others seem to be leaning in Canada's favour.
A key factor in the final outcome will be the 27-member European Union, along with the other non-EU states in Europe.
The EU is still irritated by the fact that when it tried to obtain what's described as enhanced status for the EU in UN deliberations, Canada chose to abstain. However, some non-EU countries have indicated they look favourably upon Canada's candidacy, considering that having both Germany and Portugal on the Security Council would be a form of European overkill.
Paradoxically, some moderate Arab countries maintain that as much as the pro-Israel stance is unwelcome, their vote will be more determined by bilateral issues between themselves and Ottawa.
One great unknown is the attitude of East Asian nations. Many of them have good relations with both Canada and Portugal. Some, like the Philippines, have hundreds of thousands of their countrymen working in Canada. There is considerable empathy for Canada because of this country's relatively open-door policy on immigration.
It seems clear that notwithstanding considerable criticism, many countries may still vote in favour of Canada more because of their attitude toward Canada and what it traditionally was perceived to stand for in promoting democracy and support for emerging economies.
In the final analysis, how most countries vote will be determined more by their own perceived self-interest than by how much they like or dislike any specific policies attributed to our current Conservative government.
Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator.
