Global Policy Forum

By Sean Jobst

The global importance of Russia cannot be over-estimated.

Russia and Venezuela have been strengthening their close relationship, in what has been emerging as a multipolar alliance against American global superpower.

The two countries are scheduled to hold joint naval operations in the Caribbean later this year, either in late November or December. This would mark the first time the Russian Navy has carried out such operations in Latin America. These operations were first announced early last month, on the occasion of an official Russian visit. A delegation led by Vice Prime Minister Igor Sechin arrived in Caracas on September 16th, following a visit to Cuba in what appears to be an effort to strengthen ties with Latin American governments at odds with Washington. Venezuelan newspapers closely associated with the government of Hugo Frí­as Chávez first hinted at the operation. On September 6th, the pro-government newspaper Vea quoted Venezuelan naval intelligence director, Salvatore Cammarata Bastidas, as saying that four ships from the Russian Pacific Fleet and 1,000 Russian troops were to visit Venezuelan waters some time in mid-November. He added that the Venezuelan air force will also be participating. The Fleet left its home port of Vladivostok earlier this year for a tour which also included a visit to Syria. Two Russian Tupolev Tu-160 bombers landed at Venezuela's Libertador airbase on September 10th, for training exercises in the region. Known under its NATO code-name "Blackjacks", the Tu-160 is nuclear-capable but the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that it contained only dummy missiles. After training in Venezuelan waters for five days, the bombers continued flying along the coast toward Brazil. Defense analysts said it was the first time Russian strategic bombers have landed in Latin America since the Cold War. Chávez announced on his television and radio program, Alo, Presidente: "If the Russian long-distance planes that fly around the world need to land at some Venezuelan landing strip, they are welcome, we have no problems." The Venezuelan leader added that these bombers would inform on the positions of the U.S. Fourth Fleet in the Caribbean, which was reactivated from Jacksonville, Florida, in July after a five-decade lull. Chávez has welcomed Russia's growing geopolitical presence as a counter-balance to U.S. power, as he expressed during a visit to Moscow in June 2007: "The Americans don't want Russia to keep rising. But Russia has risen again as a center of power, and we, the people of the world, need Russia to become stronger."

A Military Alliance

Certainly he felt emboldened by this growing cooperation, which allowed him to expel the American ambassador to Venezuela on September 11th in a move intended as solidarity with Bolivia's Evo Morales, who had taken the same action shortly before. In recent years he has used much of his oil revenues to purchase Russian weapons in an effort to modernize the armed forces and strengthen his own ability to deter any possible attack. These weapons have included fighter jets, helicopters, and submarines. The largest purchase came in 2006, when he sealed a $3 billion arms package with the Russian state-owned Rosoboronexport, which included 100,000 Kalashnikov AK-103 series automatic rifles, 24 advanced multi-purpose Sukhoi (Su-30) fighter jets, and 53 military helicopters of various types. The Russian Izhevsk manufacturing plant announced its plans to build two factories in Venezuela to manufacture AK-103 rifles and a corresponding munitions factory, both of which are scheduled to be operational by 2010. Chávez has also expressed his interest in a missile defense system. During his visit to Moscow in June 2007, Chávez finalized a $3 billion deal to purchase five Varshavyanka-class diesel submarines, which are equipped with 18 torpedoes, 24 mines, six torpedo tubes and eight surface-to-air missiles. The plan also provided for a Russian-built submarine maintenance base in Venezuela. Chávez announced the deal in an effort to defend Venezuela's oil-rich waters and thwart any possible economic embargo. Venezuela has now become the second-largest buyer of Russian weapons, exceeded only by Algeria.

Geopolitics and Petroleum

Venezuela and Russia have been increasing control over their own resources, nationalizing many industries as part of a broader effort of de-privatization. In Latin America privatization has long been seen as only benefiting big American corporations at the expense of local economies. Invoking the tradition of the great liberator Sí­mon Bolivar, Chávez often speaks about the need for Latin American countries to defend their own interests against the growing excesses of the neo-liberal economic structure. The new paradigm is a reaction to more than a century of economic exploitation by American corporations. On July 22th, Chávez arrived in Moscow to meet with Putin and Medvedev, to deepen geopolitical and energy cooperation between Russia and Venezuela. The two nations have dumped the Dollar in favor of the Euro in international energy transactions. Both have called for the creation of new financial institutions to replace the post-Bretton Woods order. The two nations have recognized the growing importance of energy in determining the global balances of power. During his meeting with Chávez on September 16th, Russian Vice Prime Minister Igor Sechin discussed a possible partnership between Russian oil companies and the state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). This had added significance as Sechin is also board chairman of the state-controlled Rosneft, which is Russia's largest oil company. On September 21st, Venezuelan Vice-President Jorge Rodrí­guez announced in a telephone call to Aló, Presidente, that leading businessmen from both countries reached an agreement in Moscow for up to $10 billion through 54 strategic projects in fields such as energy, agribusiness, finances, technology, tourism, education, infrastructure, food, transportation, and industry. As Rodrí­guez observed: "The tendency is to reinforce areas in which both governments have already worked and to diversify new areas." Chávez invited Russian firms to exploit the Orinoco River basin, whose oil deposits of 1.2 trillion barrels could potentially make it the world's largest. Russian oil company Gazprom is involved in a proposed Venezuelan initiative to construct an 8,000-kilometer gas pipeline which will link Venezuela's oil and gas fields to Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay. The Russian company, which has risen to become the largest natural gas enterprise in the world, is viewed as a model by Venezuelan oil companies. As the chief of the PDVSA commented: "We want to make [PDVSA] like Gazprom, but with a social role."

Will There Be A New Cold War?

What we have witnessed unfolding is the growing importance of the massive resources of Central Asia, which has gradually been undertaking the paradigm of the "War on Terror" in defining international affairs. The Bush administration, spurred by the ideological positions of the Neoconservatives and the economic pressures of leading Corporations, has been confronting Russia through its open support for anti-Russian governments such as those of Ukraine and Georgia. Russian strategists have warned against the expansion of NATO towards its border, perceiving such an action as hostile to its traditional interests. This was demonstrated by the open support given by Bush to the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. On September 6th, an American warship arrived in the Black Sea port of Poti to deliver aid to the Georgian government in its offensive against Russian forces. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev publicly suggested that the U.S. was encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence. American officials decried Russia's attack upon the "sovereignty" of Georgia, ignoring the American invasion and continued occupation of two countries, Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush considered the secessionist provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as integral parts of Georgia, just as his leading rival in Latin America, Hugo Chávez, backed of their independence in August. Putin had earlier announced plans for military maneuvers in Latin America and obviously struck a chord after Washington condemned these operations. He said during a 2007 roundtable meeting with EU officials in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi: "God forbid there should be any sort of conflict over the American continent, which is none other than the 'holiest of holies.' Yet, they send armed ships to sit just 10 kilometers from where we are here (the Black Sea, to deliver aid to Georgia)? Is that normal? Is it proportional?" This also followed months after the public announcement of American plans to build a missile defense shield in Poland and Czechoslovakia. The administration justified the move by warning about the "nuclear threat" from Iran, but the move was taken to be more directed towards its historic rival than any contrived Iranian threat. Indeed, the famous European Commission poll of 2003 revealed that 59% of Europeans view Israel as the greatest threat to world peace.

Europe relies on much of its energy resources from Russia, which has used the energy supply as a foreign policy tool. It has cut off supplies to six countries over the last seven years, in response to policies which it regarded as threatening to its strategic interests. After a deal for an anti-missile defense radar station was signed by Washington and Prague, a Russian company sharply reduced the flow of oil to the Czech Republic. The global importance of Russia cannot be over-estimated. In 2005, Russia overtook the United States, becoming the world's second-largest oil producer. It is also the largest producer of natural gas, with three-fifths of its gas exports going to the twenty-seven members of the European Union. Putin effectively re-nationalized the energy industry and consolidated them through state-controlled corporations. By 2006, Russia's foreign reserves had risen to $315 billion from only $12 billion in 1999. Putin has increased cooperation with China and the Central Asian countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which thumbed its nose at Washington by rejecting observer status to the U.S. but accepting it for Iran. In April 2007, the Kremlin issued a major foreign policy document which proclaimed: "The myth about the unipolar world fell apart once and for all in Iraq. A strong, more self-confident Russia has become an integral part of positive changes in the world." A few months earlier, Putin had elaborated on this theme when he told the 43rd Munich Trans-Atlantic Conference on Security Policy: "One country, the United States, has overstepped its national boundaries in every way. This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. This is very dangerous."

Bolivarian Geopolitics

After his re-election, Chávez expressed his commitment to a pan-Latin American world-view which he termed Bolivarianismo. He has advocated this as the framework for a "socialism of the 21st century". He has given a socialist interpretation to the independence movement created by the great liberator Sí­mon Bolivar (1783-1830). The new populist movement would be founded on ideals of redistributive social justice and a socialism based on specifically Latin American principles. His reading of Venezuelan political history during his youth has left a great impression upon his own development. Bolivar envisaged a Federation of the Andes that would have embraced Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia. He sought close cooperation among all nations of Latin America, whose interests are inter-connected with each other through cultural, ethnic and historical experiences. Before his death, Bolivar spoke about continuing the independence struggle to free Cuba and Puerto Rico. He found that this plan met with resistance with many American leaders, who had their own strategic designs upon those two islands. So he warned the new nations of Latin America to be on their guard against the rising power of the United States, which may be exercised at their expense. All national and populist movements have a strong sense of cultural assertion, which is likewise prevalent in Latin America. The Uruguayan novelist José Enrique Rodó (1872-1917) epitomized these views in his novel Ariel, which drew on two primary characters from William Shakespeare's The Tempest. Rodó took Caliban as representing the U.S. with his utilitarianism, while Ariel represents Latin America with his classical values. Caliban only looks at utility, based on material concerns, while Ariel extols the virtues of the spirit. While Chávez is unlikely to advocate the federation of South American countries, a proposal which has never been considered as either tenable or realistic, he has instituted policies designed to foster such a model of regional integration. Chávez sends foreign aid to many several less-fortunate countries in Latin America, a direct challenge to U.S. foreign aid. In reaction to the U.S.-proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FT AA), which he deems as neo-colonialist, Chávez has held up his own Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) as a better model for regional integration. His broader geopolitical strategy is definitely aimed at forging a multi-polar world, as he has frequently expressed. Chávez declared at the September 2000 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): "The 20th century was a bipolar century, but the 21st is not going to be unipolar. The 21st century should be multipolar, and we all ought to push for the development of such a world. So, long live a united Asia, a united Africa, a united Europe!" The Venezuelan President has been increasing his trade and energy relations with other countries in an effort to reduce his reliance on exports to the United States. He has made numerous visits to Russia and China as rising powers that could counter-balance American superpower. After meeting with Sechin in Caracas, Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Alonzo Carrizalez Rengifo told the Russian Itar-Tass news agency that his government views relations with Russia through the paradigm of forming a multi-polar world order and seeking other alternatives "for our country's development."

American Non-Intervention

The rise of a multi-polar world must be viewed as a natural consequence to the limitations of American superpower. Due to the massive amounts of blood and treasure expended in Iraq, the U.S. has overstretched its resources. Leading Neoconservatives have called for global American supremacy, even considering its model of a liberal democratic nation-state as representing the natural culmination of human endeavors, or the "end of history". Yet their illusions of American exceptionalism blinded them to the facts of history. Founded as a Republic with a strong Constitutional basis, the early founders of the United States advocated a foreign policy of non-interventionism. In his farewell address, George Washington urged the new nation to maintain peaceful trade alliances with all and warned it from "entangling alliances". This remained the guiding principle of American relations with other countries until a strong identity of exceptionalism formed it into an imperial power. With the expansion of the new nation, these strategists now looked overseas to fulfill "Manifest Destiny". Originally favoring strong free-markets, the United States gradually gave rise to powerful Corporate interests that pressured successive American governments to pursue a foreign policy based on opening up markets to American goods, if need be through the use of military force. This gave rise to the Wilsonian Doctrine, which perceived the U.S. as having the destiny to spread its conception of liberal democracy and other institutions, to the four corners of the earth. Yet after decades of an aggressive foreign policy and countless wars that benefited the interests of powerful Corporations or other special-interest lobbying groups, the resulting economic problems have made many Americans disillusioned with foreign adventures. A growing number of Americans desire that the United States look inward and address its domestic problems without feeling the need to police the world. Seen in this light, the rise of other global or regional powers - or what the jurist Carl Schmitt termed raums - potentially benefits all nations, including the United States. Such a global paradigm can ensure that no one nation can become the sole super-power that can easily dictate terms to the others. What we need here is also a return to another founding American principle, albeit one manifested globally. We need to witness the rise of these "checks and balances" on global power.

True peace and security can only come when nations approach each other as equals.