By Andrew Kohut *
New York TimesSeptember 18, 2003
Two years after 9/11 and one year before the presidential election, concern about terrorism continues to dominate American politics. For President Bush no less than his Democratic challengers, it is an unpredictable issue.
The president now faces at least two problems politically. The first is the effect of the war in Iraq on the fight against terrorism. The second is the declining importance of terrorism on the public agenda as the attacks recede and the election approaches.
With Americans increasingly critical of the situation in Iraq, opinion is now shifting on how the war has affected the likelihood of another terrorist attack in the United States. In April, an ABC News survey found, 58 percent thought the war reduced the chances of an attack, while only 29 percent thought it made domestic terrorism more likely. Now those figures are 40 percent and 48 percent, respectively.
Obviously, events could change these perceptions, like the capture or killing of Saddam Hussein or a marked improvement in the situation in Iraq. What's more, the president ˜ especially a Republican president ˜ almost always enjoys the benefit of the doubt on national security issues.
As the public turns its attention to other issues, however, Mr. Bush's position weakens. According to a Newsweek poll this month, his approval ratings on domestic issues are dismal: 32 percent on the budget, 38 percent on health care, 41 percent on the economy, 42 percent on energy policy.
These issues are becoming more prominent as terrorism loses some relative standing on the public agenda. In a Gallup poll last month, just 12 percent cited terrorism as the country's foremost problem, compared with 48 percent who named an economic issue. Also in August, a Pew survey found that 57 percent of Americans said it was more important for Mr. Bush to focus on the economy than on terrorism.
Of course, the president still benefits from the transformation of his image that occurred after 9/11. Three-quarters of the public see him as a decisive and forceful leader, according to a recent Gallup poll, compared with only 55 percent before the attacks. And public worry about the threat of terrorism remains substantial: that August Pew survey found 75 percent of respondents saying the world is a more dangerous place than it was a decade ago, compared with 53 percent two years earlier.
Even if the economy does not improve, concern over terrorism will play a significant role in the campaign. On this issue, President Bush remains a formidable candidate, and the task for the Democrats will be to nominate a challenger whom voters see as a strong leader. If the Democrats do, and the war in Iraq continues to create controversy, then they might find that the debate over America's response to terrorism isn't so lopsided after all.[DC]
About the Author: Andrew Kohut is director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
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