Global Policy Forum

By Salamah Ni 'mat

Around 100 US/UK jet fighters 10 days ago bombed and destroyed airbases H-3 and al-Baghdadi in western Iraq, close to the Jordanian border. Earlier, on 5 August, the allied forces destroyed an air defense base in southwest Iraq, near the Saudi border. Reports indicate that the Iraqi forces have withdrawn from the air bases and the command and control centers that were bombed, and have been replaced by US forces which have started repairing the bases to use them later. Before that, US forces, supported by Turkish troops, penetrated northern Iraq and reached a distance of around 30km from Mosul and Kirkuk. The reports also indicate that the US and allied forces are a few kilometers away from Basra, and US and allied forces now occupy more than 15% of Iraqi territory.

The destruction of the first defense lines for the Iraqi forces in the north, south and west and have prepared the grounds for the second move which will see the occupation of Basra, Najaf and Kerbala in the south, and Mosul and Kirkuk in the north. From there, the road will be open to US forces to move towards Baghdad and Tikrit from the west. It is estimated that there are today no less than 30,000 US soldiers in Iraq, mostly in the north.

The above confirms that the US campaign to change the Iraqi regime started at end-July, quietly, step-by-step, without a war declaration, and without much noise. What is strange is that Iraq, which is fully aware of the US presence on its territory, is not ready to publicize this for fear of the effect on the morale of its armed forces, or whatever is left of them. Otherwise, how can Iraq justify its silence for the occupation of part of its territory by US forces?

The fact of the matter is that the Iraqi army, or the hard core units responsible for the defense of the regime, will not fight until US forces approach Baghdad. Perhaps most of the troops will not fight, since the US has adopted a policy of leaving the door open for those who want to withdraw or surrender. The US has not declared an open war, since the injured party has not complained publicly about the occupation of its territory. In return, the focus in the next stage will be on weapons inspectors and their unconditional return to Iraq.

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