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Trigger for War

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By Bertus Hendriks

Radio Netherlands
November 8, 2002

The UN Security Council passed a tough resolution on Iraq on Friday, a day after the US and France reached agreement on the final wording. The resolution gives Iraqi president Saddam Hussein "a final opportunity" to disarm, but the threat of war still looms large.


Friday's vote will bring an end to weeks of tough negotiations between the US and Britain on the one hand and the three other permanent the Security Council members France, Russia and China on the other.

Each of the five permanent members has a right to veto and that gave room for some intense diplomatic wrangling. The US and Britain had initially tabled a resolution that would have given almost blanket Council approval to a US led war. The first draft mandated American led-weapon inspections with military back-up and imposed such draconian conditions on Iraq that it could almost be labeled a creeping invasion under the guise of weapon inspections. It was a resolution Iraq was bound to reject.

France and US satisfied

But these were just the diplomatic opening shots. Two drafts later, the final version considerably softens what Russia called "unrealistic demands" but the end result will still be difficult for Saddam Hussein to swallow. France, which has been the key architect in softening Anglo-American demands, can and will no doubt claim credit for a major diplomatic victory that reaffirms the key role for the UN Security Council in a crisis. But the fact remains that on key points the US has stuck to its guns and President Bush had every reason to be satisfied at his Thursday press conference.

The US wanted Iraq to be declared in "material breach" of earlier Council resolutions and threatened "serious consequences" in case of continuing

non-compliance, which is diplomatic jargon for war. Those clauses are still in the final resolution but after French pressure, Saddam Hussein is now offered a "final opportunity" to come clean. He has to accept the resolution within 7 days and has only 30 days to make a full disclosure of his weapon programs. False statements, omissions or lack of cooperation are also considered "material breach" and thus a justification for war.

France wanted two Council resolutions: one for the return of weapon inspectors, and - if Saddam again blocked the inspections - another one before allowing the use of force. But America refused. Instead of a resolution there will only be a meeting and a debate. After this debate, the US feels free to act.

Humiliating conditions

The conditions Saddam has to meet are very tough, indeed. For a dictator posing as the only Arab leader to say "No" to the only remaining superpower they are extremely humiliating. Any area of his country can be declared off-limits to Iraqi forces if weapon inspectors need to check suspicious facilities there. Saddam's many palaces are no longer protected from immediate and intrusive inspections. Weapon inspectors will now be able to take Iraqi scientists and their families outside Iraq to be interviewed about their secret work beyond the reach of Iraqi intelligence services - a measure dubbed by critics as "UN-sponsored defections" or even "UN-sponsored abductions".

It would take an entirely different Saddam than the one the world has seen until now to swallow all this. But then, he has little choice if he does not want war to start immediately. Still, the inspection process is so fraught with difficulties that an incident could arise or be provoked at any moment. For that reason, Iraq's UN Ambassador said the resolution represented "a trigger for war" against his country. President Bush claims war is not his first choice, that it's his last choice but nevertheless an option.

Given the UN's very tough resolution, combined with Saddam's past record of defiance and America's current determination to get rid of him, it would seem war is not just an option but rather a high probability.


More Information on the US Attack Against Iraq
More Information on the Weapons Inspection Program
More Information on the Iraq Crisis
More Information on Sanctions Against Iraq

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FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C § 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.