Global Policy Forum

By Robin Wright

The United States and Britain have mapped out a strategy that will attempt to limit arms inspections in Iraq to no more than an additional six weeks, according to U.S. and British officials.

During that period, U.N. weapons inspectors would report back to the Security Council twice on Iraq's compliance, the sources say, as a way of maintaining pressure on Baghdad and underscoring what the allies call Saddam Hussein's ongoing failure to disarm.

President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair also agreed Friday that Britain will take the lead in trying to broker language with France that would allow another U.N. resolution on Iraq acceptable to Washington and London, British sources say.

"I believe there will be a second resolution," Blair told reporters en route to Britain. "I think it will be very plain to people whether Saddam is cooperating or not in the next few weeks. If he does not comply, we have to act," Blair said Saturday.

The timing and substance of a second resolution have been key sticking points between the United States and countries such as France and Russia that have opposed imminent military action. A compromise on a second resolution would address strong public opposition to the idea of military intervention without international backing — a key to easing the opposition of foreign leaders.

So far, some Security Council members have insisted not only that a second resolution is needed to justify war but that one should be considered only after inspections have continued for an unspecified but significant period of time. Washington would prefer a resolution soon that declares Baghdad to be in final material breach of the U.N. requirement that it disarm. That would give the United States its strongest justification for military intervention.

If there is no acceptable compromise, the administration would opt for no new resolution and proceed on the basis of past resolutions. Previously, Washington has been tepid about opening the door to discussion of a second resolution. Officials fear negotiations might drag on, as they did for two months last fall on the resolution that forced Baghdad to readmit weapons inspectors.

The Bush administration has also feared that taking up a second resolution could become a source of further divisions and possibly lead one or more of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members to use its veto.

Now, however, Washington and London are increasingly confident that they can avoid those pitfalls and get a compromise second resolution in acceptable form, the sources say. Blair will hold talks early this week with French President Jacques Chirac to try to work out a compromise, British officials say. The two leaders have some room to maneuver, these officials say, but not much.

After the Columbia disaster, the diplomatic ice was broken somewhat Saturday when Chirac called Bush to express condolences. Both men talked of the strong historical bonds between their nations, and they agreed to talk further about Iraq this week.

Discussions about a second resolution may also occur while Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is in New York to present U.S. intelligence on Iraq to members of the Security Council on Wednesday. One proposal circulating in New York would label Iraq's 12,000-page arms declaration incomplete and inaccurate and say Baghdad is not fully cooperating with inspectors — a statement on which the Security Council is in accord, according to French sources.

But U.S. and British officials say any resolution must go much further or they won't agree to consider one at all. "We're in a position of strength, so we're not asking for a second resolution. But we're letting the conversations drift that way. We have a red line: Another resolution has to include the idea of imminent serious consequences," said a well-placed U.S. official who requested anonymity.

Flush with new European support and preparing to offer evidence to the United Nations, the Bush administration feels international momentum has begun to shift in its favor as it faces a critical week.

The atmospherics have changed noticeably in Washington and at the United Nations, where U.S. officials now suggest that any compromise with France, Russia and other parties reluctant to confront Hussein will be due to their change of heart — not because the United States backs down. "Things are moving our way. It's possible to find common ground, but others are going to have to come to us. And if they have something pretty good, we'll listen. But we don't need to look back, and we won't," said a U.S. official at the United Nations. "We're not going to get into the position of negotiating," the official added, "or they'll keep us over a barrel for weeks."

Several catalysts over the last week have prompted a shift in attitude, U.S. officials and Iraq experts say. Those include the U.N. report last Monday on Iraq's incomplete disarmament, a letter of support from eight European leaders Thursday and hawkish new language from Powell.

The strong letter of support for the U.S. position — signed by the leaders of Britain, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Hungary — changed the diplomatic dynamics, and not just in Europe, according to State Department officials. Washington no longer seemed as if it was in a minority or on the defensive.

"The letter was a huge boost. And the fact that Powell, once known as the most reluctant about war, has become a hawk and is now leading the American charge makes the U.S. case seem more convincing. His conversion tips the balance," said Henri J. Barkey, a former State Department policy expert on Iraq and now chairman of international relations at Lehigh University. "The sense that we're now in the final stage also generates a certain amount of momentum."

At the same time, the administration's confidence may make it vulnerable to raised expectations. "Part of the cockiness is a poker bluff," or tough diplomatic posturing to force others' hands, Barkey added.

Powell's scheduled presentation to the Security Council on Wednesday is an "unbelievable gamble," especially if there is no dramatic major revelation to prove that Hussein is still producing or concealing weapons of mass destruction, said Kenneth M. Pollack, a former CIA analyst.

"If Powell presents good evidence, he'll hit the jackpot and dozens of countries will support the U.S. But if he lays a goose egg because the evidence isn't very convincing, it will pull the rug out from under the administration and they'll see support rapidly drain away, making it very hard to pull together a coalition for war," Pollack said. A threshold has been crossed nevertheless, U.S. officials and analysts agree. After successfully drawing out the arms inspection process since 1991, Hussein has basically run out of ways to manipulate the system, as the United States gains the edge for the first time.

"After 12 years, Saddam has lost any ability to control the game. He's finding he can't dodge and weave anymore," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst now at National Defense University in Washington. "Even his allies are losing patience and interest in him. The United States is now controlling the game and setting the rules."

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