Global Policy Forum

By Stephanie Nolen

The United States intends to rule postwar Iraq through an American military governor, supported by an Iraqi consultative council appointed by Washington, Iraqi opposition leaders gathered in the northern Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah said yesterday.

They learned of the plan when delegates from three key Iraqi opposition groups met with senior U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Ankara over the weekend. In interviews, the leaders said the provisional plan calls for an American-appointed council to draft a new constitution and hold national elections for an assembly that eventually would assume power.

They believe the U.S. plan is driven by fears of future sectarian and ethnic fighting in Iraq, and the likelihood of a majority Shia regime emerging from current opposition forces and unsettling the Middle East balance of power.

"This is a victory for the forces in the U.S. administration that deeply distrust the Iraqi opposition and who imagine -- wrongly, I think -- that there are forces that they can rely on to build a democracy in Saddam Hussein-controlled Iraq," said Kanan Makiya, one of three opposition members who met with U.S. President George W. Bush last month.

"They have come to the arrogant conclusion: 'Why piss around with the opposition? Why not do this in a way the Arab regimes will be much happier with?' "

The prime minister of a Kurdish autonomous zone, Barham Salih, also knew of the plan, and said his group and others would have to accept it because U.S. forces will be doing the "heavy lifting" in any war against Mr. Hussein's regime.

"We cannot get rid of Saddam ourselves," Mr. Salih, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said in an interview.

Senior U.S. officials confirmed yesterday that an interim administration is being planned for Iraq, and could be in place for years.

Marc Grossman, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, told the Senate foreign relations committee that a U.S. military occupation could last "two years" and would involve American control over civilian ministries and the Iraqi oil industry. He played down any hope for the Iraqi opposition playing a major role.

"While we are listening to what the Iraqis are telling us, the United States government will make its decisions based on what is in the national interest of the United States," Mr. Grossman said.

"There are enormous uncertainties," said Douglas Feith, U.S. undersecretary of defence. "The most you can do in planning is develop concepts."

Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the opposition Iraqi National Congress, said in an interview in northern Iraq that the U.S. plan presented at the Ankara meeting consists of five points:

* a military governor;

* a consultative council with "unspecified duties, none of them probably executive, who will work at the pleasure of the governor;"

* a judicial council, which will draft a temporary constitution;

* the replacement of each current minister and deputy minister in Iraq's government with U.S. military officers;

* an election within a year for a constituent assembly, which would draft and approve a permanent constitution.

"To be kind, it is unworkable," Mr. Chalabi said.

Security analysts believe there are differing plans for Iraq's future stemming from a long-time struggle between the Pentagon, U.S. State Department and Central Intelligence Agency. The Pentagon has pushed for civilian rule, fearing its troops and officers would be bogged down for years running the country. The CIA and State Department have tended to favour military leadership for Iraq, fearing a swift change to democracy could lead to a breakup of the country and instability across the region.

Opposition leaders inside Iraq believe Washington has crafted a military plan to placate Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt, whose leaders are known to fear the idea of a new federal democracy in Iraq. All Sunni-majority states, they likely want to see the existing power structure in Iraq left in place, allowing Sunni Muslims to exert control over a country that is an estimated 65-per-cent Shiite.

Another factor is the Turkish military, which fears any surge in Kurdish influence in Iraq might spill into neighbouring Turkey, where a Kurdish minority has long felt repressed.

"They see some sort of Shiite/Kurdish cabal," Mr. Makiya said of U.S. concerns.

Much of the focus is now turning to Iraq's exiled Shia leader, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir Hakim, who is widely seen as a critical figure in any post-Saddam Iraq. The ayatollah is backed by Iran and would form a considerable threat to the neighbouring Sunni regimes, as well as to American interests, if he returned to Iraq.

"He will run in the election on an antioccupation platform," Mr. Makiya predicted, raising the prospect of other repercussions from the U.S. plan -- especially the risk to American officials installed in any positions in Iraq's major cities.

"I warned against this time and time again: for the sake of your long-term relations with Iraq, don't go in there and patrol those cities. Let Iraqis make these mistakes," he said.

Among many options, the plan presented at Ankara would see U.S. troops protecting key figures from the ruling Ba'ath party as part of an amnesty deal that would secure a role for Sunni officials in any future administration.

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