Global Policy Forum

By Mikhail Alandarenko

Russia will gain if the U. N. lifts sanctions imposed on Iraq, an expert for the Moscow-based Institute for Oriental Studies said on Tuesday. "Iraq is a vast market for Russian goods. Besides, it will be able to return its debt to Russia once the international blockade is over," the head of the Arab department's economic sector, Alexander Filonik, told Itar-Tass. "When sanctions are finally lifted -- and they will be abolished some day because they cannot last for ever -- Baghdad will be again a partner of Moscow's, the way it was during the days of the former Soviet Union," Filonik said.

Asked to comment on Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov's appeal to help Iraq comply with the sanctions and, simultaneously, to pave the way for the lifting of the sanctions, he said Iraqi people are not to blame for the lengthy standoff between Baghdad and the U. N.

However, the head of the Moscow-based Arabists' Association, Vadim Sementsov, said the sanctions must remain in place until Iraqi President Saddam Hussein caved in and gave signs of willingness to co-operate with the international community. "Ivanov's statement calling for the blockade to be lifted runs contrary to some points in Russia's new foreign policy concept, which provide for Moscow's active participation in the formation of a just, stable and democratic world order," Sementsov said. "Russia backs Saddam Hussein and other 'rogue' leaders such as Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia and Kim Jong Il of North Korea only out of defiance, since it is willing to show that it has a foreign policy of its own," Sementsov said. "Russia's betting on Iraq has been a mistake," he added.

In contrast to Iraq, he cited Iran as a country which is going through a transition of sorts and in which the some liberal ideas are being transformed into reality. "Western nations have started moving towards Iran since Mohammad Khatami was elected president in 1997 in a contested and fairly free vote. However, no changes for the better can be seen in Iraq," he sa2d. "Iraqi people suffer not from the sanctions but from the regime. However, left-wing movements in the West are pushing for an easing of the blockade," he said.

Nevertheless, experts have not come to a unanimous conclusion about whether the lifting of sanctions will help or damage Russia. From the one hand, Baghdad is expected to repay its several- billion-dollar debt to Moscow. On the other hand, oil prices may drop once Iraq is allowed to produce fuel on a large scale, which will be an absolutely unwelcome prospect for Russia's export-oriented economy.