Global Policy Forum

By John F. Burns

On the eve of the gulf war 10 years ago, a Westerner visiting Baghdad could be sure of one constant in any conversation with an Iraqi — obsequious praise of Saddam Hussein, Iraq's often merciless ruler. Usually, the phrases about "the Iraqi people's great leader, His Excellency Saddam Hussein," and the "glorious era" of his rule would have an edge of urgency, as if only an excessive display of loyalty could ward off the retribution Mr. Hussein has been known to exact for dissent, including summary executions of whole families. But a visit to Iraq shows that even if little has altered in the way Mr. Hussein maintains control, something else has changed.

Where once the verbal genuflecting would pour forth unprompted, it is now possible for a visitor to go days without anyone but the government "minder" who accompanies every visiting foreigner mentioning Mr. Hussein. More than that, growing numbers of Iraqis, seizing moments when the minders are distracted, are ready to take the risk of whispering their fear of the Iraqi ruler and the deep-seated hatred that they say he has engendered among this country's 23 million people.

Even more remarkable, officials at senior levels have begun to speak of a time when Mr. Hussein will no longer be the country's ruler, and even, in two interviews in the past 15 days, to allude to his eventual death. Altogether, the changes could suggest that at 63 Mr. Hussein is seriously ill. A decade ago, for a foreigner even to hint that Mr. Hussein might be mortal was to court expulsion, and for an Iraqi official to do so was unknown.

The first of the two senior officials to broach the subject of Mr. Hussein in interviews was Abdul-Karim al- Hashemi, a former higher education minister with a doctorate in geochemistry from Boston University who heads the Organization of Friendship, Peace and Solidarity, an agency that is a prominent part of Baghdad's machinery for greeting foreigners. At the start of the interview, he was asked what he thought Americans should know about the state of affairs in Iraq. Almost immediately, he began a discourse about the durability of the Baghdad regime and how it was not solely reliant on its current leader.

"To this day, people in America and Britain do not know that Saddam Hussein is not heading a one-man show," he said. "They don't know that the system Saddam Hussein has put in place is operating, not deteriorating, and not only operating, but developing." Ten days later, a more senior official, Human Abdul Khaliq al-Ghaffour, inquired about the reporter's personal experiences as a lymphoma patient, a decade ago, and asked whether his visitor's lymphoma, a form of cancer, had spread to his bone marrow, and whether he had undergone a bone marrow transplant.

After arguing briefly that the United States should open a "dialogue" with Iraq, Mr. Khaliq then turned unprompted to the issue of Mr. Hussein's mortality. "We are proud of Saddam Hussein, of course, but we are realists," he said. "Even after years of his long life, and I hope that he will stay forever, we are human beings, we know that there is an end to life. But we have thousands of Saddam Husseins now, so we have nothing to fear, this is the reality."

Mr. Khaliq is regarded by Western intelligence as one of perhaps two dozen men who form an inner circle around Mr. Hussein. He has been information minister since 1997; before that, for 10 years until 1992, he was chairman of Iraq's Atomic Energy Commission and thus, according to Western intelligence reports, was deeply involved in Iraq's efforts to build nuclear weapons. Mr. Khaliq, 54, holds a doctorate in nuclear physics from London University.

Later, when Mr. Khaliq's remarks were passed along to other Iraqis, during moments of unmonitored conversation, several reacted with something approaching nonchalance, as if they had known that Mr. Hussein was not well. One man said his family had ties with the Iraqi leader going back nearly 20 years but that nobody in the family had seen him lately. He added: "But of course, he's sick. He's very sick. We know that."

Another man, a physician, said it was known that Mr. Hussein was ill, and that many Iraqis were commenting privately about the Iraqi ruler's seeming pallor and weight loss during recent appearances on television. But added, "If we talk of that, it's KALABOSH" — an Arab word meaning handcuffs.

Rumors like these have surfaced before only to recede as the Iraqi ruler vigorously carried on. After talk five years ago that he had Hodgkin's disease, a form of lymphoma, Mr. Hussein appeared on television to boast that he was fit enough to swim the Tigris. Politically, too, he has seemed in many ways stronger than ever.

In the face of the harsh economic sanctions against Iraq over the past decade, he has defied the Western world over his secret weapons arsenal, and Iraqis say, exiles assert, enriched himself, his family and his cronies from black market dealings while millions of his countrymen have fallen into destitution. While blaming the West for Iraq's deepening poverty, he has continued building vast marble palaces in Baghdad and other cities.

More specific rumors circulating now mostly come from Arab-language newspapers published outside Iraq that rely heavily on exiled Iraqi opposition groups. Some say one of his palaces has been turned into a clinic, some say the younger of his two sons, Qusai, stands ready to take control. Earlier this month, the Washington Times carried a report that Mr. Hussein had informed his family and senior aides in December that he was dying, and said that that Secretary of State Colin L. Powell "is reputed to give this intelligence assessment credibility."

This welter of rumor has provoked widespread doubts. At Western embassies in the region, officials familiar with the most recent intelligence reports remain skeptical that the Iraqi leader is ill, telling reporters that they have no evidence to indicate that, and cautioning that the Iraqis may be spreading the rumors as part of a "disinformation campaign" to weaken support for the economic sanctions. "If there was some reason to believe that Saddam might be removed from the scene within weeks or months, then there might be less receptivity to a hard-line position on sanctions," one Western diplomat commented. The Central Intelligence Agency, for its part, has been dismissive of such rumors. "I wouldn't attach credibility to rumors that Saddam is seriously ill," said one American intelligence official.

This time, Mr. Hussein has offered no public denial that he is ill. But he has responded in a way, by keeping up a vigorous schedule of official duties; Iraqi newspapers and broadcasts detail his every meeting with a foreign dignitary, or with his cabinet At one of those appearances, a military parade in Baghdad four months ago, remained in the bitter cold for 13 hours, repeatedly firing a hunting rifle with one hand to salute the battalions marching past, and impressing diplomats with his stamina. At one point, hearing some of the guests complaining about the cold, he ordered an aide to fetch them warm clothing.

Some diplomats who were present, having heard the rumors of cancer, wondered if they were looking at a double. But an ambassador from a neighboring country, who greeted Mr. Hussein and shook his hand, said he had no doubt it was Mr. Hussein. "Looking at him out there in the cold, firing that rifle, you couldn't imagine any guy stronger than him," he said. "And when he ordered warm clothes — well, the way his assistants reacted, snapping to attention, it could only have been the real Saddam."