Global Policy Forum

Summary

Sources indicate the United States is considering air strikes against Iraq after it attempted to shoot down a U.S. spy plane. Such a mission could go beyond recent U.S. and British strikes and would intend to deal the Iraqi military a substantial setback. A U.S. attack would likely use retaliation as a pretext: real concerns focus on signs that Iraq's military is regaining strength.

Analysis

The confidence of the Iraqi regime, led by President Saddam Hussein, appears to be growing. In recent days, Iraqi forces have fired at a U.S. E-2C surveillance plane in Kuwaiti air space and, on July 24, narrowly missed an American U-2 spy plane flying over southern Iraq.

In turn, the United States appears to be planning a military operation against Iraq involving air and missile strikes, according to sources. The current political and security situation suggests a strike might aim to cripple air defenses and possibly damage Iraq's military infrastructure in order to interrupt its renewed efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. An attack would likely use retaliation as a pretext. It is unclear when it would take place.

Such a limited operation, however, is unlikely to significantly shift the political equation in Iraq or remove the current regime from power. Washington instead appears to be counting on little international impact. But an air or missile campaign would allow Saddam to proclaim his country the victim of U.S. aggression and renew his plea for an end to the enforcement of the no-fly zones.

Recent events have left the United States in a relatively weak position in the Persian Gulf. Russia's veto of U.S.-backed "smart sanctions" last month at the United Nations combined with Washington's continuing attempts to prevent full-scale war between Israelis and Palestinians undercut U.S. influence.

Regional pressures are forcing Washington to step up involvement in Iraq. President Bush said on July 26 that Saddam is "still a menace" and vowed to "keep the pressure on Iraq.''

Much is not clear about a U.S. potential mission. Answers to questions of timing and scope are not widely known; neither is whether or not British forces would participate. CNN also has reported plans for an operation.

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