Global Policy Forum

By Omayma Abdel-Latif

Members of the Iraqi opposition of all political persuasions this week expressed vehement objection to US plans for a post-Saddam regime. Iraqi opposition sources speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on Monday said representatives of the Iraqi opposition, scheduled to meet next week in the city of Arbil in the Kurdish-controlled area to decide on plans for the transitional period, will come under heavy pressure to make a declared stand against the American plans to install a US military governor in Baghdad.

The meeting of the follow-up and arrangement committee, known as the "Committee of the 65", which is an outcome of the Iraqi opposition conference held in London in December, was due to be held in January, but has been delayed several times. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) sources, however, told the Weekly on Monday that most of the committee's members are now in northern Iraq to prepare for the meeting.

According to observers, the discussions are likely to be overshadowed by what appears to be cracks in the relationship between the US administration and the sections of the Iraqi opposition deemed pro-American. "The majority of the Iraqis, including those who will participate in this follow-up meeting, deride the scenario that seeks to impose an American occupation of Iraq and install a military rule," Fakhry Karim, an independent Iraqi analyst based in Damascus, told the Weekly on Monday.

Karim, who maintains close contacts with the different opposition figures in Iraq, said that of the many post-Saddam scenarios, the one involving military rule seems to be the most popular to the US administration. "This scenario of replacing the Ba'ath rank and file with an Iraqi cadre overruled by an American general cannot be accepted, even among those sections within the Iraqi opposition that are considered pro- American," Karim said.

This week, two leading figures of the Iraqi opposition in exile, Kanan Mekiya and Ahmed Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), one of the main Iraqi opposition movements, severely criticised the US plans, which they said amounted to "a betrayal of the hopes of the Iraqi democrats".

Echoing a similar view, The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the main Shi'a opposition movement, issued a statement earlier this week condemning US plans that "Baghdad be ruled by an American military leadership in a transitional period." A source close to the SCIRI told the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper that the movement has been briefed on the plans by US envoy Khalil Zalmay during his visit to Turkey last week. "Those plans are bound to create real problems in Iraq and will destabilise the country," said Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim, a member of the central board of the SCIRI. "We believe this will be in contradiction with US claims to pursue a democratic process in Iraq that respects the rights of the Iraqi people. The US should uphold the right of the Iraqi opposition to select the transitional government and assume responsibility for all Iraqi affairs."

The SCIRI is due to call for a gathering that would bring together all Shi'a movements, including the Da'wa Party, the Action Party, as well as representatives of the Shi'a tribes, intellectuals and religious authorities to discuss what Al-Hakim described as "the Shi'a's role in a post-Saddam regime".

Sources in the Iraqi opposition said the issue will be a high priority in the expected meeting. Karim believes the opposition forces will exert every effort to face up to the American plans.

There have been discussions to formulate a government in exile that would take up the responsibilities during the transitional period, but according to Karim and other sources at the KDP, this thought has been dismissed as invalid.

It is expected the meeting will result in what Karim described as a temporary political leadership, which will be responsible for the coordination and communication between the Iraqi people and the new leadership. Other key issues on the agenda include the expansion of the follow-up committee to include some 25 other representatives of the different Iraqi political forces that are under-represented in the current Committee of the 65.

A number of movements are expected to boycott the Wednesday meeting, including the Iraqi Communist Party, the Da'wa Party and the Iraqi National Accord (Al-Wifaq). The Constitutional Monarchy Movement, led by Al-Sharif Ali Bin Al- Husayn, has set the formulation of a preparatory committee of 15 figures representing all opposition forces as a condition for its participation in the Arbil meeting. A spokesman for the movement said it would not accept any discussions on a new constitution or a government in exile.

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