Global Policy Forum

By Nadim Ladki

The United States is unlikely to take military action soon to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein but it could be ready to tighten the noose around him by reinvigorating 11-year-old UN sanctions, a senior Arab official and regional analysts said.

The sources said Washington, armed with a blanket of international support for its "war against terrorism," would reintroduce a proposal to refocus sanctions against Iraq when the current six-month phase of an oil-for-food deal with the United Nations comes up for renewal in early December.

"We see the Americans reintroducing smart sanctions at the Security Council in December with new vigour. They will also reopen the file on the return of weapons inspectors to Iraq," the Arab official said.

He said it remained to be seen if the United States would win the backing of China and Russia required to push through the revised sanctions at the Security Council.

Both countries have given clear support to Washington's "war on terrorism" but Russia has previously opposed the so-called smart sanctions and China expressed reservations. The UN imposed a blanket of trade sanctions, including a halt of oil exports, in 1990 to punish Iraq for its invasion of Kuwait and prevent it importing technology to make weapons.

Six years later, it allowed Iraq to sell oil with revenues going into an account held with the UN to buy food and medicine and pay compensation for the occupation of Kuwait.

"Smart sanctions" would ease restrictions on civilian goods imported to Iraq but retain bans on military equipment.

The US-led military campaign against Afghanistan is now into its third week but US President George W. Bush has so far resisted domestic pressure from hawks in the Pentagon to strike at Iraq, long seen as a "pariah state." With no hard evidence Baghdad was involved in the Sept. 11 attacks, any moves against Iraq could wreak havoc in a US-led coalition against "terror" and further destabilise the Middle East, the analysts and official said. But if a solid link were found between Iraq and the attacks, all bets would be off, they said.

Reflecting old mistrust of the Iraqi leader, Bush described Saddam as "an evil man" and said the United States was watching Iraq very carefully, days after ordering a military campaign against the prime suspect in last month's attacks, Osama Ben Laden, and his Taleban hosts in Afghanistan.

Iraq, which denied any link to the attacks on the US but did not denounce them outright, responded by describing Bush as "evil man number one." Sanctions revisited The Arab official, echoing similar statements by Arab leaders, said Iraq appeared to be off the US agenda for military strikes, at least while the war rages in Afghanistan: "Attacking Iraq with no clear proof of its involvement in terrorist attacks will not be acceptable in the Arab world, on the level of the street and on the level of governments.

"Arab governments can't agree to settling of old scores. Changing the regime in Baghdad by force is no picnic and attacking Iraq could partition the country and destabilise the whole region." Neil Patrick, head of the Middle East programme at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, agreed that military action did not appear to be in the offing.

"Even if it turns out to be a quick operation in Afghanistan, it is unlikely the United States would decide now to overthrow Saddam and commit forces on the ground in Iraq," he said.

Patrick expected the United States to increase military pressure on Iraq by "toughening up" its air patrols of two "no-fly zones" over north and south Iraq, a measure the Bush administration had been keen on even before last month's attacks.

No guarantees He said discussions on a reformed sanctions package at the UN had been overtaken by the attacks but that Washington would try to get it passed in December.

Although there were no guarantees of success this time, Russia might find it in its interest to lift its objections but Patrick doubted the five permanent members at the Security Council - the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia - would agree to force Iraq to take back inspectors.

Russia, eyeing multibillion dollar trade deals with Baghdad, rejected the US-British proposal in June and proposed lifting or freezing the sanctions. Most Arab countries also strongly opposed the proposed sanctions regime while China expressed reservations.

Iraq threatened to sever trade ties with any country backing the changes and demanded a total lifting of the sanctions before considering allowing weapons inspectors back.

Saying it had fulfilled a UN resolution to destroy its weapons of mass destruction, Baghdad expelled the inspectors in December 1998, sparking a four-day bombing campaign by the United States and Britain.

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