Global Policy Forum

By Howard Schneider

As if stepping off an aircraft at Baghdad's airport was not unusual enough after years of blockade, Prime Minister Ali Abu Ragheb of Jordan said that what he saw showed the extent to which U.S.- backed international sanctions were slipping in the face of efforts by Arabs and others to end Iraq's isolation.

Seven other aircraft that had carried visiting dignitaries stood on the tarmac of the suddenly bustling Saddam International Airport. Hotels were full of officials and businessmen hoping to build ties and snare contracts, including Jordanians led by Mr. Ragheb, the highest ranking Arab leader to visit Iraq since its invasion of Kuwait. Iraq was mobilizing dozens of truckloads of food and medical supplies to help Palestinians. And, in another at least symbolic example of improving conditions in a country that has often complained about shortages of basic medical and other goods, the Jordanian said he was able to replace quickly a blood-pressure medicine he forgot to take with him.

After weathering years of scarcity, Iraq is riding a resurgence in the price of oil and in its own political fortunes in the Arab world and beyond, with its government intact and with new opportunities to battle for a lifting of the international sanctions imposed at the start of the Gulf War a decade ago. Arab leaders, most of whom joined the military alliance that evicted Iraq from Kuwait, are showing an increasing willingness to rehabilitate the country even with President Saddam Hussein still in control. Their people are demanding it, particularly when the Iraqi president's anti-Israel rhetoric has struck a chord during weeks of Palestinian-Israeli violence. The image of American and British planes patrolling northern and southern Iraq, ostensibly to protect rebel Kurdish and Shiite populations, is contrasted with U.S. opposition to international intervention on behalf of the Palestinians.

In addition, there is diminishing faith among Arab officials that U.S. policy makes sense toward a country they regard as militarily weakened, and which for their own economic, political and cultural reasons they would like to reinvigorate. Iraq "has suffered enough," the Jordanian prime minister said in a recent interview, adding that the Arab countries felt Iraq should be "re-engaged." "Are the sanctions eroding?" he added. "Yes. We feel they are becoming ridiculous."

Jordan has a particular interest at stake. It needs trade with Iraq to support an economy that has yet to realize the benefits of business with Israel or the West that were promised when King Hussein made peace with Israel. It also relies on Iraq for cut-price oil, a fact the Iraqis have used to pressure their economically weaker neighbor.

But it is not just Jordan making the case. Iran and Syria, military and political nemeses of the Iraqi government, have stepped up talks with Baghdad, and Syrian officials said Wednesday that Iraqi oil resumed flowing in a pipeline to Syria, reaching 150,000 barrels a day. Although wary of Iraq's military designs, Saudi Arabia has reopened its border with Iraq to facilitate truck traffic. Egypt, a key U.S. ally in the region, recently hoisted its flag again in Baghdad, a signal that the country's downgraded consular section there will be restored to full diplomatic status. Iraq "will soon be integrated into the Arab fold," President Hosni Mubarak said. "It's only a matter of time now."

Although there is nothing about the United Nations imposed sanctions that prevents diplomatic and even economic ties from expanding, such sentiments strike at the political credibility of the U.S. containment policy put into place after the Gulf War. Sanctions are a critical part of the strategy, aimed at preventing President Saadam from using the country's oil wealth to rebuild his military or invest in biological, chemical or nuclear weapons.

Under UN resolutions, international weapons inspectors are supposed to certify that the country is complying with restrictions on its weapons programs before sanctions are lifted. In fact, the sanctions have been progressively loosened over the last 10 years in response to international concern about Iraq's skyrocketing disease rates, malnutrition and other humanitarian problems. Over the same period, the government of Saddam Hussein tried to conceal its weapons programs from UN inspectors and was forced to cooperate when the concealment was revealed by a defector. Then, in 1998, Iraq effectively kicked out the inspectors - a move that triggered four days of intense U.S. air strikes on suspected weapons sites.

U.S. officials still argue that Iraq maintains weapons programs that must be monitored if they are not to threaten the region. And they note that the basics of the sanctions program remain intact and largely respected. The country's purchases of equipment, chemicals, industrial goods and a host of other items are still monitored by international officials and subject to embargo if it is determined they have a potential military use.

The controls are outlandishly picayune, according to Iraq and its supporters, vital to international security according to the United States. However, Western and U.S. diplomats throughout the region consider the events of recent months a possible precursor to more blatant sanctions-busting, and a boost to diplomatic and political moves to lift the sanctions.

Already the effectiveness of the sanctions is questioned, as is the ability of the United Nations to resolve a nearly three-year deadlock over whether weapons inspectors will be allowed to return. Iraq is earning more money from oil than ever. It has the benefit of cash from smuggled exports to pursue the military programs the sanctions are supposed to prohibit. In such a situation, there is little incentive for compromise.

Arab leaders, out of deference to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, have for years maintained an ambiguous stand toward Iraq. But sympathetic to the hardships that sanctions have imposed on the Iraqi people, they also largely blame President Saddam for the country's plight.

That has not fully changed. Jordan, Egypt and others, along with Iraq's main backers on the UN Security Council, France and Russia, are pushing Iraq to accept the weapons inspectors again, even as they build new diplomatic and economic bridges with Baghdad.

But there is little doubt that regional trends favor Iraq. When the Arab summit convened here last month, it was for the first time in a decade joined by both Kuwait and Iraq, a sign Arab observers said showed that anger over Palestinian-Israeli violence could supersede other regional tensions.

When the broader Organization of the Islamic Conference convened in Qatar last week, diplomatic efforts on behalf of Iraq continued, with the host nation joining other small Gulf countries to press for a reconciliation. Some progress may have been made. The final statement dropped its traditional reference to "Iraqi aggression" and called for efforts to "prepare the ground for resolving the differences."

The Iraqis may have begun to show some movement as well. Though they have said repeatedly that UN weapons teams would never return, at a meeting last week with Secretary-General Kofi Annan, the Iraqis agreed to a review of the situation "without preconditions."