By Hugo Kugiya
NewsdayFebruary 10, 2003
Aided by the speed of the Internet, and mindful of the lessons of past wars, anti-war activists have been quick to oppose the use of force against Iraq. Already organized because of the recent bombing of Afghanistan, the opposition acted quickly and perhaps most importantly well in advance of a war. "Momentum is very important," said Ralph DiGia of the War Resisters League, an 80-year-old group based in Manhattan. "The more demonstrations you have early on, the more people come out later."
As the likelihood of war increased over the past several weeks, money was raised quickly for television commercials in online telethons. Susan Sarandon, Sean Penn, George Clooney and other celebrities lent their faces to the cause. Busloads of protesters converged on major cities.
Among the largest demonstrations, organized in part by moveon.org, the popular protest movement reared on the Internet, are one planned Saturday in New York and one Sunday in San Francisco. Smaller demonstrations are expected in various parts of the country, from a march of a few dozen people in rural Harmony, Minn., to an anti-war poetry reading in Manchester, Vt., both planned for Saturday.
Government officials know they need to take the peace movement into consideration. "Leaders know now that they have to get in and out quickly before the body bags start to add up, and before the peace movement takes hold," said Michael Nagler, a classics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who teaches a course in the school's peace and conflict program.
So the peace movement learned to launch its own pre-emptive strike, Nagler said. "This is faster growth than any I've seen," he said. "The protest against Vietnam was much slower in coming and did not reach as deep into the mainstream. It took us 15 years to get to this point with Vietnam ... The peace movement is attracting people from the mainstream."
That might depend on one's definition of mainstream, but anti-war activists say they have captured the imaginations of more than just the fringe. And while they might not prevent a war, they say, their quick reaction might have delayed it or affected the agenda for waging it.
"If there was not a reaction, I think we would have bombed Iraq already," said Tim Vining, director of the Thomas Merton Center in Pittsburgh, an anti-war group. "The administration is aware that if there's a war, if it doesn't end quickly, there could be a political price to pay."
The confederacy of opposition to the war includes scores of obscure groups like the Anti-War Operations League, United Students Against Sweatshops, Queers for Peace and Justice and Rhodes Scholars Against the War. The vast majority are organizations in name only. Some are no more than message boards or a Web page listing the phone number for the congressional switchboard.
But the opposition also includes well-known environmental and human-rights groups, labor unions, churches and a coalition of government officials and groups in Contra Costa County, Calif., east of San Francisco.
"I haven't met a single person who has agreed," with President George W. Bush's position on Iraq" said Ann Eagan, a yoga teacher from Sunnyside, Queens, and a member of the Green Party. "I've made it a habit, whenever I'm out somewhere, to drop a little hint about protesting the war to see if someone wants to disagree with me. So far, I've not had one person disagree with me ... This is a true people's peace movement."
The appearance is that of a highly unified front, with a large breadth of support. The truth appears more complex. While the sentiments against war resonate widely, peace activists do not represent the majority of Americans, if one believes the polls. "They were pretty well organized very early on in the process," said Eric Larson, a senior policy analyst with the Rand think tank who specializes in national security. "And there may have been some encouragement based on early polling numbers.
"What makes our current situation different is that our information environment is quite different. With the Internet, and e-mail, you have tools that facilitate global postings and global coordination. It's a kind of thing we haven't faced before."
Several polls taken shortly before Colin Powell's presentation to the UN indicate the same things, that on the whole, a clear majority of Americans support an invasion. And while they might not be entirely convinced, they are resigned to the inevitability of war and willing to support Bush should he order an invasion.
A recent poll by the Los Angeles Times showed about 65 percent of the 1,385 polled nationwide supported military action only with UN support, while 30 percent thought the United States should fight even alone. More than 50 percent supported war if "some allies such as Great Britain," joined in. About 57 percent said they trusted Bush to make the right decision.
"Too much has been made of the conditions placed on the support," said Larson, who has studied public opinion toward war and the military. "It risks missing a lot if you don't pay attention to the basic level of support, which is much higher than it has been in past cases."
"To my eye, there is a growing sense of fatalism," Larson said. "What's really remarkable is the high level of basic support before the president has even made a decision. I can't overstress how unusual this seems to be."
Marc Arendt, 32, works for a software company in Chicago. He has never participated in a protest, nor does he plan to, although he sympathizes with their cause. In many ways, he is somewhat typical of those feeling caught in the middle.
I can't say I want a war," Arendt said last week. "But I can imagine our circumstances changing to the point where I'd support it."
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