Global Policy Forum

By Mark MacKinnon

They sat side by side, Afghanistan's former king and its current leader, at times holding hands in a show of solidarity after a day that nearly tore apart hopes for the country's stability. As they faced the news media and reassured the world they were of one mind, it became clear neither man was controlling the proceedings, and that the true power centre sat to the left.

Zalmay Khalilzad, U.S. President George W. Bush's special envoy to Afghanistan, looked on smiling as former monarch Mohammed Zahir Shah disavowed rumours that he would run against interim leader Hamid Karzai, rumours that shook Afghanistan's emergency loya jirga (grand council) and delayed its opening by a day. The former king then threw his support behind Mr. Karzai's unofficial bid to remain leader. Mr. Karzai humbly accepted.

Mr. Khalilzad didn't say anything at the press conference, held yesterday afternoon in the ex-monarch's rose garden. He didn't have to; the other two men were saying exactly what he had predicted several hours earlier they would say.

Mr. Khalilzad's emergence from the shadows was a strange and ominous sign on what was supposed to have been the first day of Afghanistan's long-awaited grand assembly on the country's future.

Midway through a scorching Kabul afternoon, as delegates bickered over the role the former king should play in a transitional government, and an ethnic Tajik-Pashtun split over cabinet postings threatened to widen, Mr. Khalilzad summoned the international media.

He proceeded to tell reporters what would be in a statement the former monarch's aides would later read in the rose garden. Point 1: The media misinterpreted the former king's remarks when he said he would accept any role given to him by the loya jirga. Point 2: The former king is not a candidate for any post at the loya jirga. Point 3: He "fully supports" Mr. Karzai's leadership. It was even Mr. Khalilzad who announced the press conference at the king's residence.

"First the U.S. envoy stays up all night meeting with the key players. Then he told everyone there would be a press conference. Then he sat beside the king as the speech was read," veteran Afghanistan observer Alexander Thier noted. "Enough people here already believe that foreigners are always pulling the strings in Afghan politics. To be so obvious about it was not in America's interests."

The goal clearly was to present the loya jirga's 1,500-plus delegates, some of whom are on opposite sides of centuries-old disputes, with a compromise government that all could live with. But Mr. Thier suggested that delegates may end up rejecting a government headed by Mr. Karzai since it will likely be seen as having been chosen in Washington rather than Kabul.

Many of the delegates, particularly those representing the country's ethnic-Pashtun majority, hoped to see the 87-year-old former monarch take a role in the new administration, as head either of state or of government.

Ethnic-Tajik leaders, who control the Northern Alliance and thus the country's largest single military force, opposed that view. The risk remains that Pashtun supporters of the king may ignore yesterday's announcement and use their numbers to bring the monarch back in one role or another.

"This pro-Karzai arrangement was not a deal done inside the loya jirga; this was done outside the loya jirga, and this won't go down well on the inside," said Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid, who has written several books on Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Last night, at least one member of the ex-king's inner circle complained bitterly to reporters that he had his arm twisted into stepping aside.

Asking not to be named, he warned of a backlash by supporters who would not tolerate further interventionism by the United States, which toppled the hard-line Taliban regime last year.

"Mr. Khalilzad made a big mistake, unfortunately, an unfortunate push that should have not happened," he said.

If Pashtuns do push to install Zahir Shah in a top post, Tajik leaders will likely drop their support for Mr. Karzai, who is also a Pashtun, and put forward a candidate of their own.

If the loya jirga doesn't disintegrate into factional fighting, the made-in-America stamp Mr. Khalilzad put on any Karzai regime may still prove deadly down the road. Analysts recalled the last time Afghanistan had such a chance at peace, 10 years ago, and how quickly it disintegrated from high-minded councils to bloody civil war.

"If it appears to everybody that they don't have a choice in this government, they're going to go back to the provinces after the loya jirga and say, 'This isn't the government we selected,' " Mr. Thier warned. "My instinct is that the United States has made an enormous error."

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