August 29, 2006
If Congo regresses and sinks into militia-based ethnic violence, the situation will have major ramifications for the stability of countries in East and Central Africa.
Indeed, countries in the region are hardly in a position to deal with the sort of expensive humanitarian relief operation that is bound to arise if civil war were to break out between the personal armies of the country's warlords.
As we went to press, calm had returned to Kinshasa after three days of violence between the presidential guard and militia loyal to presidential candidate Jean Pierre Bemba. But all indications are that as the country braces for the second round between incumbent President Joseph Kabila and Bemba, political temperatures will hit an all time high - bringing with it major security implications.
Militia-based ethnic violence remains a possibility, especially because efforts by the international community to demobilise militias and integrate them into a national army have so far not succeeded. According to Dr Cathy Clement of the International Crisis Group, only 50 per cent of the army has been integrated.
As a result, a good number of election losers, including Bemba and Azarias Ruberwa, still control large personal armies. Kabila, who is control of the 17,000-member presidential guard - the GSSP - would appear to have an advantage in this regard.
Initially, the thinking by the international community was to send them to the brassage - retrain them, mix them and then post them away from their former warlords. But little was achieved after the major players, including Kabila, resisted sending their armies to "brassage." In a recent report, the ICG warned that such troops could be used to reject the verdict of the ballot.
The recent shooting in Kinshasa between Bemba's troops and Kabila's GSSP has not only confirmed these fears, but demonstrated that a resort to violence remains a major option for the major players, especially as the conflict intensifies and as the country approaches the run-off presidential election.
Kabila has openly stated that he will respect the verdict of the voters. But although he may want to accept defeat if he loses in the run-off, some hawks around him may not want to leave power.
A recent statement by Kyungu Kumwanza that he has no problems taking Kabila back to Katanga if people from Equateur and Kinshasa do not want him in Kinshasa was a tell-tale that some of the hawks around the incumbent may force Kabila to go back to Katanga and secede.
The people in Katanga, which broke away in the 1960s and contributes about 70 per cent to the national budget, do not see why they are stuck with poor Kinshasa, which rejected Kabila by massively voting for Bemba in the just-concluded elections.
There is talk that militias such as the 12,000-member force which fought with Moishe Tshombe and the late Laurent Kabila against Mubutu Sese Seko could come to Kabila's help. It is also speculated that the Mai Mai, who have been loyal to the government and have not disarmed or fully surrendered, could go back to the bush to fight for Katanga's freedom.
The stakes in the next stage of elections will be even. Just how high the stakes are was demonstrated by the anxiety that gripped the country two weeks ago when the results were about to be announced.
When the head of the electoral commission, Apollinary Malu Malu, was ready to announce the results, heavy shelling pinned him to the headquarters of the Independent Electoral Commission and armoured tanks belonging to the United Nations had to be sent to escort him to announce the results. The whole episode delayed the process by over three hours. And since that time, Kinshasa has not been the same.
On Tuesday last week, diplomats who visited Bemba to persuade him to accept a public appearance with Kabila and to appeal for calm in the country had to summon the same armoured tanks to escape to safety. They had been meeting with Bemba at his residence when the home was surrounded by soldiers from the presidential guard.
Soldiers loyal to Bemba and those loyal to Kabila have been battering each other with so much ferocity as to cast doubt on the viability of the run-off election. Who is likely to win in the run-off? While it is still too early to predict, it will all depend on how the alliances develop in the coming weeks and who between them gets the support of the 31 losers.
Veteran politician Antonie Gizenga, who surprised everybody by scoring 13 per cent of the national vote, will be an influential kingmaker in the next round. He managed to garner a massive 1.6 million votes from his native Bandudu province.
Another key player in the bargaining and horse trading that is bound to take place in the battle between Bemba and Kabila will be opposition doyen Etienne Tchisekedi. Although he did not participate in the just-concluded elections, his influence showed in the low turnout witnessed in his Kasai region.
The Catholic Church also remains influential. It did not show preferences in the polls and merely urged negotiations to include all parties (that is, Tchisekedi) before elections - a position which was also held by Bemba.
Which superpower is supporting which candidate? The evidence is anecdotal but the conventional wisdom in Kinshasa is that South Africa, Angola and the US are pro-Kabila, and the the European Union and Libya pro-Bemba. The role of Uganda, which used to support Bemba, remains ambivalent. Rwanda used to support Ruberwa, but relations are said to have gone sour after Kigali advised him to support Kabila. He refused and went ahead to perform miserably in the elections.
Is there a possibility that the rest of the losers will gang up against Kabila? In the run-up to the just-concluded elections, people like Bemba attempted to start a campaign around the clarion call "tout sauf Kabila" - any one else but Kabila.
The campaign did not pick up enough momentum. According to Dr Clement, much will depend on the outcome of the parliamentary elections, whose results are yet to be announced.
If parties opposed to Kabila take many seats and realise that they are at a better position to appoint a prime minister, she argues, they may get the impetus to regroup against the president. Kabila is unlikely to get the support of the losers from the west behind him. They will be committing political suicide.
Furthermore, analysts say that the man is not good at canvassing support and is surrounded by erratic handlers, competing interests and people just out to take advantage of him. The forces who put him in power when his father died still want to micro-manage him.
He is unlikely to get the support of Tchishekedi due to the traditional suspicions between Katanga and Kasai, which were inflamed during the governorship of Kyungu wa Kumwanza in the 1980s, when Katangese expelled Kasais from Katanga. In the circumstances, chances are that Tchisekedi may keep mum or find it easier to support Bemba.
Other losers from Kasai, including US-based Dr Oscar Kashala - who garnered a lot of votes from the area - may feel more comfortable aligning himself with Bemba for fear of losing Kasai support.
It is noteworthy that a number of contenders were former Mobutists - including his son Joseph Nzanga, who also performed relatively well in the elections. Speculation has it that he may be inclined to support Bemba, who is related to him by marriage. Bemba's father was a long-time ally of the Mobutus.
It remains to be seen how the parties will fare in the parliamentary elections, whose results are expected to be announced on September 3. The likelihood is that Bemba's party will have a clean sweep of the west and Kinshasa, while performing poorly in the east of the country.
The polls have polarised the country into east versus west, along ethnic lines, and Lingala versus Kiswahili. During Mobutu's time, Lingala was the language of the army and easterners hated the army and their language. And, when Laurent Kabila took over as president, Kiswahili became the language of the army - causing Westerners to hate the language.
The country is also polarised geographically. This is one country with two time zones and thick forests. It has a poor road network, with flying being the most common mode of transport from one part of the country to the other. The United Nations mission there - MONUC - has the biggest fleet of aircraft standing at over 80 planes. The average Congolese in south of the country has no contact with the one in the north, west or east.
The country has many languages. When Bemba came to campaign in the east, he spoke Lingala - which the people in that region detest. When Kabila campaigned in the west, he used French, which, incidentally, he is not very good at. There, they say he is not "Mwana Mboka" - a son of the soil.
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