Global Policy Forum

The president has gone - what happens next?

The United Nations Security Council has voted unanimously to send in a multinational military force to restore law and order. That will be followed by a stabilisation mission to support a peaceful transfer of power. Soldiers from the US, Canada and France are already in Haiti and are expected to form the heart of the UN operation.

Armed gangs still roam the streets of Haiti's cities - some saying they are rebels and others who support former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. But the main rebel leader, Guy Philippe, has welcomed the deployment of US marines and correspondents say the various militia are not expected to challenge the international forces.

The future remains uncertain both for who may take political power and for Mr Aristide. He has fled to the Central African Republic, but it is unclear where he will seek to settle.

How bad is the situation?

Chief Justice Alexandre Boniface has taken over as interim leader in a process laid out in the Haitian constitution, but there remain fears of a political vacuum.

The political opposition, which is not linked to the rebels, has tried to present itself as a viable alternative to Mr Aristide. They are concerned that the rebels who forced Mr Aristide to go are little more than armed gangs without any defined political beliefs.

Amid the confusion as the rebels increased their pressure on Mr Aristide to go, there have been scenes of panic among civilians. In one reported case, 200 people tried to board a nine-seat plane headed for neighbouring Dominican Republic. France, Brazil, Canada and the United States sent military aircraft to evacuate their nationals.

Law and order has broken down in many places, with looters ransacking stores, businesses, government buildings and hospitals. Thousands of people are reported to have looted a shipment of humanitarian aid and medical supplies at Port-au-Prince port.

What have the protests been about?

The unrest of recent months stemmed from disputed elections in 2000 and flared as Haiti celebrated 200 years of independence. The political opposition feared Mr Aristide would rig legislative elections due in 2004 and seek to stand for a third term in 2005. They boycotted the Congress, and refused to co-operate in any government initiatives.

Since then, they have protested against the worsening economic situation and the lack of political dialogue. They also refused to participate in new elections unless Mr Aristide resigned.

The demonstrations became increasingly violent in recent months, especially in northern cities such as Gonaives and Cap-Haitien. Opposition groups and government supporters have been involved in violent clashes. Dozens of people have been killed since September. Both sides blame each other for the violence, and it seems that groups of the poorest shanty-town dwellers are willing to support whoever pays them.

Who are the opposition?

The main political opposition, which has distanced itself from the armed gangs, formed a coalition known as the "Group of 184", said to comprise that number of political parties, civil societies, trade unions, and business associations. It has no obvious leader, although businessman Andre Apaid has emerged as a spokesman.

The armed rebels are a disparate group of former gang members and disgruntled ex-soldiers.

The leader of the initial uprising in Gonaives is 33-year-old Butteur Metayer - a prominent member of a formerly pro-Aristide gang originally called the "Cannibal Army" and renamed the Resistance Front. Another group comprises former exiled soldiers of the old Haitian army, which was disbanded in 1995 after US forces returned Mr Aristide to power. The group, which calls itself the New Army, is led by 36-year-old Guy Philippe, who has emerged as the leader of the rebellion.

Was President Aristide a failure then?

Jean-Bertrand Aristide has been the dominant political figure in Haiti for the past 15 years. Before the current unrest, he brought some political stability to the island. But he disappointed many of his more radical supporters by not pursuing a clear agenda for change; he and his supporters claim he was blocked in this by opposition from the United States and lack of support from the international community.

Haiti's economic situation has worsened still further in the past few years. There is very little left of the formal economy, with traditional exports of coffee, rum and other agricultural products having diminished almost to zero. The small assembly industries for the United States have also almost entirely folded. Tourism, which thrived in the 1970s, has dried to a trickle.

The only growth area is drug trafficking: Haiti makes an ideal staging post for shipments from Latin America to the United States, and US Secretary of State Colin Powell has recently complained of lack of support in the anti-drugs effort from the Haitian authorities.

Because of the Aids epidemic and other health crises, the average life expectancy in Haiti has now gone down to 49 years.