Global Policy Forum

By Tom Bowman And Mark Matthews

In challenging allied aircraft almost daily over Iraqi no-fly zones, Saddam Hussein may have unwittingly handed the United States a strategy that could lead to his own downfall: Bomb until his military overthrows him. Since the four-day Operation Desert Fox attack on Iraq in December, U.S. and British planes have conducted more than 100 bombing strikes, including eight yesterday, in response to Iraqi provocations. Recently, the allies have expanded the target list to go beyond those that pose immediate threats to aircraft -- such as radar and missile sites -- to attack targets more valuable to Hussein, such as communications facilities and headquarters.

The Clinton administration within the past few weeks asked Marine Gen. Anthony C. Zinni, commander of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, to study the likelihood of a coup and what could be expected, according to congressional sources. Moreover, knowledgeable observers say there are indications that stepped-up U.S. covert action is under way inside Iraq to help pave the way for a coup or rebellion.

Without acknowledging this, a senior administration official said, "Our efforts at regime change go far beyond contacting external opposition groups." Yet this official stressed that the United States doesn't want to encourage a hasty uprising: Any effort to oust Hussein needs to be "carefully planned and thought through." "Spontaneous rioting could end up with Saddam Hussein just killing a lot of people," the official said. The Pentagon has brushed aside talk of a new strategy: "Our strategy is toenforce the no-fly zone," said a senior official. "The Iraqis opened fire frequently for a period of time on our pilots. And we are not going to let them fly in a region of danger," he said.

One congressman pressed Defense Secretary William S. Cohen last week on the Iraqi bombing campaign. "Are we in there for the long haul?" asked Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, a New Jersey Republican, at a Capitol Hill hearing. "And what would be the prospects for an exit strategy?" Cohen insisted, "We are simply enforcing the containment policy that we have had in existence, and we will keep that policy in existence until such time as full compliance on his part." Then he added, "When there is a new regime that hopefully one day will be brought about, Iraq could then re-enter into the international community."

Although officials and members of Congress say the attacks aren't intended to topple the regime, they clearly hope Hussein's opponents will get the idea that he's vulnerable.

"One thing generals don't like is they don't like to lose their toys," said Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., a Delaware Democrat with close ties to the administration, suggesting Iraqi military leaders may prefer a coup to destruction of their weapons systems. "I still believe the most fertile ground [for a coup] is the army. That's the place where there's possibility." "It's clear our preference is for a coup, not an uprising," said Michael Eisenstadt, a military specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who indicated that a coup is a win-win situation.

"If there is a coup, this will turn out to be hailed as a brilliant stroke of American policy. If you don't get a coup, you weaken his military and keep him on the defensive. He's forced to divert resources to internal security. It forces him to think about a coup, focus on his power base and divert money and personnel to spy on the spies."

Air defense losses

Hussein has lost 20 percent of his air defense system as a result of the allied attacks during the past two months, according to Pentagon officials. The attacks have also destroyed missile sites near Basra that threaten allied warships. The Iraqi leader has reportedly executed a number of senior officers for incompetence or doubts about loyalty.

Gulf commander Zinni said Hussein appears intent on shooting down a pilot. To the Iraqis' evident frustration, the U.S. air campaign has proceeded without any American plane being hit or pilot captured. But it hasn't gone totally without mishap. An errant missile killed Iraqi civilians in January. Last week, oil exports under the U.N.-controlled oil-for-food program were briefly disrupted after U.S. pilots bombed a building in northern Iraq that housed anti-aircraft equipment and a system for directing oil flow. Meanwhile, two former intelligence analysts said there appear to be renewed efforts by the CIA to work with opposition groups within Iraq.

Members of Congress and allies of the groups bitterly challenge Zinni's assertion that these groups lack "viability." But the administration has appointed Frank Ricciardone as special envoy to work with outside opposition groups, while legislators press the administration to release the $97 million in military assistance that Congress set aside for the groups. The administration is only paying lip service to the groups, they charge, doling out money only for conferences and anti-Hussein radio broadcasts. But the weaponry and military training needed to build a rebel force have not been forthcoming. More extensive bombing in hopes of a coup is only wishful thinking, they say. "It's not going to accomplish anything," said one former intelligence official involved in Iraq. "It keeps some pressure on Saddam but not a lot."

And what happens, they ask, if Hussein stops challenging the allies in the no-fly zones? Will the U.S. respond if the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north again rise up against Hussein? "There doesn't seem to be a plan," said the former intelligence official.

While the Clinton administration tries to pull together a fractured opposition outside Iraq, signs of serious unrest are coming from inside the country that may demand a hasty response from the United States. After the recent execution of a Shiite leader, Ayatollah Sadek as-Sadr, the administration is watching for a possible insurrection in heavily Shiite southern Iraq. So, evidently, is Hussein, who in December put the region in the hands of the notorious Ali Hassan Majid, the general who held Kuwait in a firm grip and earned the nickname "Chemical Ali" for using poison gas against Kurdish civilians. The Shiites "stand up for themselves more quickly than other groups might," a State Department official said.

Lasting case of nerves

In addition, the United States continues to get reports that its December bombing campaign was more damaging to Iraq than originally thought and has produced a lasting case of nerves. While the administration intensifies its effort to get rid of Hussein's government, familiar problems haunt the effort: a disparate and unorganized opposition and regional skepticism about U.S. seriousness and staying power.

"It is clear to me here in Washington that the Americans are a little more serious," said Shafeeq Ghabra, director of the Kuwait information office in Washington. But in the Persian Gulf, he said, "there is still that feeling that the Americans are trying only to punch Saddam rather than hurt him. This will not motivate a coup in Iraq. No one would dare make a coup if he does not have a link outside and assurance that 1991 will not be repeated." This was a reference to the period after the gulf war when the United States and its allies stood by as Hussein's military crushed rebellions by the Shiites and Kurds.

`No match for Saddam'

"The country is in a state of latent revolution," Iraqi National Congress President Ahmad Chalaby said in an interview from London. "They are looking for an opportunity to rise up against him but they are unable to organize significantly. They are no match for the weaponry and strength of Saddam." The administration has made some gains in trying to encourage unity among anti-Hussein forces outside Iraq, but is having trouble working with the London-based Iraqi National Congress, which views itself as the umbrella organization of the opposition.

The latest problem is a plan by Chalaby to gather several hundred members in Washington for a meeting in late April. A State Department official described the session as a "pep rally" and wants to see a meeting of the group's leadership occur first. The United States is not ready to supply training and nonlethal supplies to the group and hasn't asked friendly states in the region to provide bases, the official said..