Global Policy Forum

The United Nations has warned that Cote d'Ivoire risks sliding back into full-scale conflict as militia groups ramp up their activity across the country and the political peace negotiations remains mired in deadlock.

In a report to the Security Council released late on Wednesday, Secretary-General Kofi Annan repeated his call for more than 1,200 extra UN peacekeepers to be dispatched to the West African country, because the 6,000-strong UN force already on the ground was over-stretched. "There is a very real danger that events may spin out of control with incalculable consequences for the people of Cote d'Ivoire and the sub-region as a whole," Annan said.

Cote d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, has been split into a government-run south and a rebel-held north since September 2002 after a failed coup attempt against President Laurent Gbagbo triggered a civil war. A ceasefire was established in May 2003, but in recent months this has shown signs of breaking down as negotiations between Gbagbo and the rebels remain stalled and efforts to impose a French-brokered peace settlement run out of steam.

The African Union charged South African President Thabo Mbeki with mediating a solution to the crisis, after Gbagbo's air force launched a series of bombing raids against the north in November last year and anti-French riots in Abidjan provoked an exodus of nearly 9,000 expatriates from the nation's de facto capital. Mbeki is trying to reunify the country in time for Ivorians to head to the polls in October, but his mediation drive has so far made scant progress. And the UN said the planned presidential and parliamentary elections were under threat.

"These protracted delays are dangerous," Annan said. "The time remaining for properly organising the elections is rapidly running out. The continuing delays are increasingly putting the holding of the elections as scheduled in October in jeopardy." He noted that work in updating electoral lists was at the initial planning stage and that the Independent Electoral Commission had become a political battleground.

The G7 coalition, which groups the main opposition parties in parliament and the New Forces rebel movement, suspended its participation in the electoral commission last month, protesting that its membership was unfairly weighted in favour of Gbagbo's Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) party. Tension remains high in Cote d'Ivoire following a fresh violation of the ceasefire by government forces in February. A militia group loyal to Gbagbo attacked a rebel outpost on the frontline at Logouale, about 500 km northwest of Abidjan -- an assault which Gbagbo failed to condemn.

"The mobilisation of militia-type groups is increasing nationwide... I am deeply concerned by the arming of these militias, and their increasingly dangerous activities," Annan said in his report. The National Commission for Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration estimates there are about 10,000 militia members in Cote d'Ivoire but the UN chief said this number was "very likely to be underestimated."

Annan said it was crucial that the Security Council approve his request, first made in December, for an extra 1,226 UN peacekeepers. "The need for these reinforcements has been further underscored by the deteriorating security situation, in particular in the Zone of Confidence, and requires the Council's urgent attention and support," he said.

Their arrival would bring the total number of international peacekeepers in Cote d'Ivoire to more than 11,000. The UN force is backed up by 4,000 French peacekeeping troops who work alongside the blue helmets under separate command. Annan noted that the capacity of the UN Mission in Cote d'Ivoire's (ONUCI) to patrol the demilitarised buffer zone along the frontline had been severely weakened because tensions in Abidjan had not significantly abated. This meant that two infantry contingents diverted to the city from the frontline in November had been unable to return. The current UN mandate for the both the UN and French peacekeepers expires on 4 April and there has been talk that France, accused by Gbagbo of supporting the rebels, may withdraw its troops from its former colony.

The French force is heavily armed with tanks and armoured cars and is backed by air power. Any withdrawal would leave the more lightly armed UN soldiers under much more pressure. Mbeki, in a fresh attempt to break the deadlock, has called the five main political leaders in Cote d'Ivoire to a summit in Pretoria, which diplomats say is scheduled for 2 and 3 April.

Annan urged all the parties to the conflict in Cote d'Ivoire to pull together. "I renew my appeal to President Gbagbo, the New Forces and the leaders of all Ivorian political movements to demonstrate the necessary political will and carry out (the AU) plan of action without further delay. Failure to do so increases the possibility of renewed hostilities," he said. "Should the elections be postponed for any length of time, a major crisis of confidence is likely to arise and further undermine the country's stability."

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