Global Policy Forum

By Dulue Mbachu

Several regional leaders watched with approval as Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo set fire to a stack of weapons in a stadium in the rebel-held city of Bouake in the country's north on 30 July. It was the first time he was visiting the city since civil war broke out in September 2002 in what had been West Africa's most stable country. After a nearly five-year stand off during which Ivory Coast found itself on the brink of war with former colonial power France, with only the presence of UN troops preventing a full-blown civil war that could have engulfed the entire region in turmoil, the world's largest producer of cocoa and coffee appears to have turned a critical corner towards enduring peace.

"Today it is peace, the war is finished," declared Gbagbo as the weapons burned and South African President Thabo Mbeki joined other presidents from neighboring countries and thousands of spectators in applause. "Mr President, your coming to Bouake marks the reconciliation of Ivory Coast," Guillaume Soro, leader of the rebel New Forces declared in return. Months before, the event had seemed unthinkable. Neither a peace agreement signed in France four years earlier nor several subsequent meetings brokered by the African Union (AU) with the support of the UN and France provided the desired breakthrough to peace as both sides held intransigently to their positions.

A deal agreed in Ouagadogou, the capital of northern neighbor Burkina Faso, in March changed all that. Soro became prime minister and moved to Abidjan to work with Gbagbo in a new national unity government, and suddenly long elusive peace seemed realizable. Gbagbo's visit to Bouake and the symbolic burning of weapons called "the flame of peace" was meant to further cement the process.

Beyond cosmetic peace

However, many analysts believe the Ivory Coast protagonists and regional leaders need to move the process beyond cosmetic peace to restore the country's dwindling fortunes and prevent the emergence of similar regional upheavals in future. "The ceremony is only the beginning and not the end of the process of renewal," says Lindsay Barret, a West Africa specialist and independent analyst. "Disarmament must be followed by a genuine and fairly arbitrated electoral process that will result in the formation of a government that represents the interests of all the people of the nation," he told ISN Security Watch.

Indeed, widespread feelings of political exclusion were the underlying cause of the conflict in Ivory Coast. For four decades after independence from France in 1960, the country was under one-party rule by Felix Houphuet-Boigny, who also maintained close relations with the former colonial ruler. Boigny was also the architect of the country's agrarian prosperity, encouraging migrants from neighboring countries to come and work in Ivorian cocoa and coffee plantations and using the wealth to develop the country's infrastructure.

When Boigny died in 1993, the relative peace he achieved through iron-fisted but paternal rule began to unravel as rivalry ensued for leadership. His chosen successor was Henri Konan-Bedie, who was like him a southerner. But for Bedie, the political presence of Alassan Ouattara, a northerner who had served as prime minister under Boigny and was later International Monetary Fund vice president, loomed threateningly large. One of Ouattara's parents hailed originally from Burkina Faso and to cripple him politically, Bedie pushed through a new law requiring that both parents of anyone aspiring to be president must hail from Ivory Coast. This was the origin of the concept of Ivoirite (Ivorianness), which alienated not only the large population of migrants making up an estimated 30 percent of the country's 16 million population, but also the mainly Muslim north, where ethnic affiliations often cut across borders.

Mutinous soldiers took advantage of the growing disaffection in the country to topple Bedie in 1999. General Robert Guei, whose attempted suspension by Bedie triggered the military uprising, became the country's first and so far only military ruler. Guei promised early elections, but not only would he not repeal the law excluding Ouattara, he sought to profit by it, presenting himself as a candidate in elections a year later. His main challenger was Gbagbo, a veteran opposition leader who had been jailed by Boigny. Gbagbo became the beneficiary of a voter backlash against Guei, who conceded defeat after initial reluctance in the face of days of massive street protests.

Faced with growing north-south divisions, Gbagbo adopted the policy of Ivorianness and tightened his political hold on the south of the country and the country's main city, Abidjan. It marked the start of even more tumultuous times for Ivory Coast characterized by coup attempts and the growth of xenophobia, with northerners, African migrants and other foreigners frequently targeted by mobs and security forces.

The most serious coup attempt was launched on 19 September 2002 while Gbagbo was visiting Italy. The security forces accusing Guei of responsibility, attacked and killed him in his Abidjan home. Ouattara escaped a similar attack, taking refuge in the French embassy. It subsequently emerged that a new rebel force, the New Forces, were responsible for the attempt and they retreated northwards, setting up their base in Bouake and effectively dividing the country.

France, which has always maintained a military base in Abidjan, initially used its troops to maintain a buffer zone between the two sides, limiting what would have been all-out war to skirmishes. They were later joined by UN troops while the warring sides were encouraged to hold peace talks.

A January 2003 accord brought back rebel leaders to Abidjan to join a unity government but did not result in peace or disarmament. The agreement collapsed a year later and the New Forces representatives left the government. Gbagbo ordered his troops in November 2004 to retake the rebel-held north and the air force launched bombing raids on Bouake and several northern towns.

In one bizarre incident French troop positions were hit by Ivorian planes, resulting in the death of nine French soldiers. France launched retaliatory attacks and wiped out the Ivorian air force comprising two attack planes and five helicopter gunships. Gbagbo later said the strike on French troops had been in error.

But the French action became a spark for anti-foreigner riots in Abidjan and several southern towns, with businesses owned by foreigners looted and destroyed. Some 10,000 French citizens resident in Ivory Coast were evacuated and tens of thousands of African migrants fled after hundreds had been killed in the violence. International efforts continued to restore peace to the country with the AU and the UN collaborating. With Gbagbo's original term due to expire in 2005, the UN Security Council backed an AU proposal to extend his stay in office for one year pending disarmament by the rebels and new elections. It was extended again in 2006 when no breakthrough was forthcoming.

However, the intervention of Burkina Faso President Blaise Compaore (long accused by Gbagbo of backing the rebels) changed the outlook as it brought the rebels back to the government and the peace process back on track.

Concerns remains

But concerns remain, highlighted by a 29 June rocket attack on a plane used by rebel leader Soro at the airport in Bouake in which four of his aides were killed. Suspicions have fallen on rebel dissenters not happy with the peace deal. Worries have also been expressed about the intentions of Gbagbo, who declared on 6 August that the country was ready for elections. Many opposition leaders insist that more time is required to rectify the identification system, which had resulted in the exclusion of many northerners at the height of the xenophobia that gripped the country in recent years. "If we are to hold elections now many people who were denied identification because they were suspected to be foreigners would be denied the vote," Ahmed Oumarou, a supporter of one-time prime minister, Ouattara, told ISN Security Watch.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council has voted to extend the stay of its troops and French forces in Ivory Coast until January 2008, to help create the ideal conditions for peaceful elections. According to analyst Barret, the rest will depend on the good intentions of President Gbagbo and former rebel leader Soro for the Ivorian people. "Only a new constitutional process and the test of the electoral credibility of the sentiments expressed at the burning of the arms can consolidate what appeared to be a genuine act of contrition," said Barret.