Global Policy Forum

Summary

Since September, Guinea has experienced little more than sporadic violence. That ended March 9 when attackers hit a military base in Parrot's Beak. The offensive may be a part of Liberian President Charles Taylor's strategy to gain regional control, but it could bring Taylor face-to-face with one of Guinea's strongest allies – the United States.

Analysis

Fighting is the rise in Guinea. On March 9, armed fighters, reported IRIN, attacked a military base in Parrot's Beak, a war-torn region that amounts to a swathe of Guinean territory jutting into Sierra Leone. The attackers reportedly include Guinean army deserters, Sierra Leone rebels and Liberian advisors. Although no one has claimed responsibility for the offensive, previous attacks in Parrot's Beak and near Conakry were claimed by Guinea opposition group the Rassemblement des Forces Democratiques de Guinee, reported the BBC. The group has reportedly received training in Liberia.

The offensive may be part of Liberian President Charles Taylor's long-term strategy to gain control over the region. But the strategy could prove dangerous, bringing Taylor up against one of Guinea's strongest allies – the United States. Washington has remained largely uninvolved in the long-standing conflicts consuming much of West Africa. But a U.S. administration change and the expansion of fighting into mineral-rich Guinea could lead to a shift in U.S. policy.

Washington will likely provide military assistance to the government in Conakry, Guinea's capital. It may also encourage a rebellion in neighboring Liberia in an attempt to oust President Charles Taylor, the driving force behind the region's conflicts. Aimed at securing long-term U.S. mining interests in Guinea, U.S. involvement could heighten regional tensions and lead to full-scale regional war.

Young Sierra Leone refugees play in a transit camp in Conakry, Jan. 5. The United States gets approximately 40 percent of its crude bauxite from Guinea, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Moreover, U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa recently secured long-term contracts for bauxite mining in Guinea's northeast.

Guinea has abundant mineral resources including bauxite, diamonds and gold. Bauxite accounts for 20 percent of Guinea's GDP and 94 percent of Africa's bauxite production, reports the Africa information resource Mbendi. Liberia's interests center around two strategic areas. Liberian rebels are reportedly based south of Parrot's Beak and often launch attacks against Liberian government forces based in northern Liberia. An invasion by Liberian-backed militants into Guinea near Parrot's Beak would allow Liberia to approach from the rebels' flank while cutting off their lines of supply from the north.

The region has a wealth of mineral reserves including diamonds and gold. Just west of Parrot's Beak are the Sierra Leone diamond mines controlled by the Revolutionary United Front (RUF). The rebel group uses revenue from its diamond trade with Liberia to fund its war against the government in Freetown.

To the east, in Guinea's Macenta and Kerouane provinces, lie diamond and gold reserves. These resources are a potent attraction for resource-poor Liberia. By pushing further into Guinean territory, the invaders may hope to weaken Guinea's army enough to cut off Liberian rebels and position themselves to seize control of these mineral resources.

The strategy could bring Liberia into direct conflict with the United States. Washington has already supported measures to squeeze Liberia economically. Economic sanctions on Liberia's diamond exports imposed by the U.N. Security Council are intended both to curb Taylor's support for the RUF and to demonstrate the West's growing intolerance for Liberia's regional role.

Failing diplomatic and economic sanctions, the United States and its allies may lean toward providing military support for Guinea. Washington may also weigh the benefits of supporting Liberian rebel group Ulimo-K. Such measures could easily spread the current fighting, now largely contained to border areas.

Fostering a rebellion in Liberia while Liberia supports a Guinea opposition group could lead both sides to direct conflict, perhaps even drawing in Taylor's regional ally Burkino Faso as well.