Global Policy Forum

By Paul Simon *

Nations go to war over oil, but there are substitutes for oil. How much more intractable might wars be that are fought over water, an ever scarcer commodity for which there is no substitute?

Even in America water is increasingly precious. Aquifers are being depleted; some rivers can't supply all the cities and farms that have relied on them. But the United States has 4 percent of the world's population and 8 percent of its fresh water. The main problem is distribution, and fights over water take the form of legal battles. In other parts of the world, the situation is much more urgent.

Nowhere is this more true than in the Middle East. Even in the unlikely event that the current conflict between Israelis and Arabs is resolved tomorrow, in 10 years or less the area is likely to explode over water — unless regional and long-range planning begins soon.

Last year American intelligence agencies told President Bill Clinton, in a worldwide security forecast, that in 15 years there will be a shortage of water so severe that if steps are not taken soon for conservation and cooperation, there will be regional wars over it. In the Middle East, tensions are highest between Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan and Syria, but water crises will confront their neighbors as well. Egypt, for example, gets 98 percent of its water from the Nile, but 85 percent of the Nile's waters come from Ethiopia, which has a rapidly growing population and increasing water needs of its own.

Middle East leaders understand that they need to agree to regional and long-range planning for conserving and sharing water and for constructing desalination plants. But they must begin soon. A drought is making the water situation worse now, but even if rainfall were normal, water shortages would be growing desperate for most Middle Eastern countries.

Residents of Amman, who are more fortunate than some Jordanians, are permitted to turn on their water faucets just one day a week; additional, limited water is available from small tank trucks at a cost most cannot afford. Jordan's population will grow by approximately a third over the next decade, spreading the water supplies even thinner. Damascus and the southern half of Syria are in slightly better shape. But Syrians also ration water, and Damascus has an ancient water system in desperate need of repair. Syria's population is expected to double in 22 years.

For most Palestinians, the water problem is worse even than in Jordan — particularly in Gaza, with its high population density and dangerously low aquifers. And people living under the Palestinian Authority have the highest birth rate in the region. Israelis are better off, but Israel, too, faces both declining aquifers and shrinking rivers at a time of rising population; its expected growth in the next decade is 20 percent.

Every continent has places where painful shortages are coming. China, for example, has 7 percent of the world's fresh water and 22 percent of its population; 300 large cities there already have serious water shortages. The World Bank reports that 300 million people live today in areas of serious to severe water shortage and that in 25 years the number will be three billion.

On a recent trip to Jordan and Syria, I urged officials to begin negotiations with their neighbors on crucial water issues. Asking Arab leaders, particularly in Syria, to sit down with Israel is not an easy sell. But the severity of the water problem can slowly bring them to negotiate. And as we have learned from labor-management negotiations in the United States, getting people to work together on one issue may make it easier to get them to cooperate on others.

International water agreements do exist — even, in a limited way, in the Middle East. Syria and Israel have an informal accord, with each side understanding there are certain limits on water distribution. Jordan and Israel have an agreement on allocation, as do Syria and Jordan.

But there are frequent complaints of nations not living up to such understandings. And as aquifers continue to decline and rivers shrink, such charges will inevitably grow. We need some type of international system of assessing water flows and aquifers, a highly technical task, and it must be backed by an international water court, something akin to what a few of America's Western states now have. The problems with water are too technical for a court at The Hague to handle. The United States should take the lead in bringing countries together to establish these protections.

For Arabs and Israelis, a regional vision and concrete plan will have to include desalination. A comprehensive plan will be costly, and the United States and other nations should be ready to assist. The price will be small compared to the cost of a conflict.

*Paul Simon, former Democratic senator from Illinois, is director of the Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.

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