Global Policy Forum

Despite a recent setback, American opponents of the long-standing US trade embargo against Cuba think they stand a good chance of getting the four-decade-old sanctions against the island eased this year.

A joint US Senate and House of Representatives conference committee earlier this month stripped provisions from a budgetary appropriations bill that would have relaxed travel and trade restrictions with communist Cuba in 2003. The amendments sought to deny the Bush administration funds needed to enforce key elements of the embargo, like a travel ban to Cuba for most Americans and a $1,200 annual cap on the remittances Cuban-Americans can send to their relatives.

But a growing movement of embargo opponents in Congress feel they are gaining ground and could overturn or relax the four-decade-old sanctions against the government of Cuban President Fidel Castro. "We're gaining momentum all the time," said Representative Jeff Flake, an Arizona Republican who fought hard to overturn the embargo last year.

Flake argues that the administration should use its resources to fight terrorism rather than "essentially track down grandmothers travelling to Cuba." Flake plans to present a bill that would end travel restrictions to Cuba and says he has already garnered 50 Republican and Democrat co-sponsors.

The bill is the newest legislative initiative in a long standoff that has pitted a well-organised Florida Cuban-American constituency and the White House against a growing coalition of business leaders and bipartisan legislators that want to trade more with the Castro administration.

Two senators presented a bill earlier this month that would make trade with Cuba easier. "It is time to end the embargo," said Senator Max Baucus, a Democrat from Montana and one of the bill's sponsors. Those opposed to the embargo argue that sanctions have failed to force Castro to implement democratic reforms, and they point to how trade with China has triggered economic reforms there.

Those backing the embargo say concessions to Castro should only take place if the Cuban leader first carries out democratic and human rights reforms. Despite growing majorities in both chambers that favour lifting sanctions, the Flake and Baucus bills face crippling procedural delays and the threat of a White House veto.

But embargo supporters are going to have a harder time holding their ground in the new 108th Congress, opponents say. Brian Alexander of the Cuba Policy Foundation, a bipartisan group that wants to lift the embargo, estimates a solid 230 House votes in favour of eliminating the travel ban, against 148 congressmen who oppose such a move.

Cuba observers agree that the pro-embargo camp is getting weaker, especially in the Senate, with the recent departures of high-profile backers like Senators Jesse Helms and Robert Torricelli. "You're gaining support and you're losing opposition," said Alexander.

This increases the chances that the House and Senate may be able to agree to a common bill that foils the kind of procedural delays that has thwarted past attempts to ease sanctions. But this does not mean the embargo opponents have a clear path to victory.

"All the central components of the current stalemate are still in place," said Dan Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think-tank. These include a White House that refuses to budge on the embargo and a House leadership under Texas Representative Tom DeLay that wants to maintain restrictions, despite some Congress rank-and-file members who prefer to ease the embargo.

And pro-embargo legislators, said Erikson, are well placed in key committees to keep bills from even getting voted on. Even so, said Erikson, "since 2000, the anti-Castro constituency has been playing defence as opposed to offence. In the 1990s, they were playing offence and winning." Back in 1996, for instance, Congress approved the Helms-Burton Act, which tightened the embargo.

"We know that we have our work cut out for us," said Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a firm embargo backer and a Cuban-American Florida Republican. Recognising that the pro-embargo camp has "lost some champions" in the Senate, she nonetheless remains upbeat, saying that other senators, like Virginia Republican George Allen, will oppose initiatives easing sanctions.

Finally, she said the Cuba embargo group could count on a "true ally" in President George Bush. "As long as we have George W. in the White House, he will maintain a firm line. He has told me personally and he has said it publicly: He will not loosen sanctions against Castro."

FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C íŸ 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.