Global Policy Forum

By Chris Buckley

North Korea agreed on Tuesday to return to stalled six-party talks on ending its nuclear programs some three weeks after staging its first nuclear test and a U.S. envoy said he expected "substantial progress".

In an informal meeting in Beijing, North Korea, the United States and China agreed to resume talks in the near future at a time convenient for all six parties, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on its Web site. The other three countries involved in the talks are South Korea, Japan and Russia. A fifth round of talks in Beijing broke off last November without progress and North Korea later protested over a U.S. crackdown on its international finances.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told a news conference that he expected "substantial progress" from the next round of talks, possibly in November or December, after he met his North Korean counterpart, Kim Kye-gwan, in Beijing. North Korea had made no explicit promises not to conduct any further nuclear tests, Hill said, adding that the U.N. Security Council resolution on Pyongyang remained in force. "I think it's self-evident they should not engage in such provocations," Hill said of further tests.

The talks would address North Korea's concerns with the U.S. financial measures, possibly through a working group, he said, adding that Pyongyang needed to abandon "illicit activities" that Washington has said include currency counterfeiting. The U.N. Security Council voted on October 14 to impose financial and arms sanctions on North Korea after its October 9 nuclear test.

White House Welcome

In Washington, the White House welcomed Pyongyang's decision to return to the talks. A senior U.S. official said, however, that implementation of U.N. sanctions would continue. Japan's top government spokesman, Yasuhisa Shiozaki, welcomed the resumption of the multilateral talks, saying the six-party forum was the best framework to resolve the standoff, Kyodo news agency said.

One Japanese government official told Reuters: "We think this could be a step in a positive direction, but we still have some caution." Earlier on Tuesday, before word of the talks resumption agreement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said Beijing had no plans to sever aid to or trade with North Korea. Liu denied that an apparent drop in China's oil exports to the isolated fortress state signaled a shift in policy. Chinese oil trade data released on Monday indicated that in September China sent no crude to North Korea at all.

The North relies on China for nearly all its oil, but has strained long-standing ties first by test-firing missiles in July and then by testing a nuclear device -- both despite public pleas for restraint from China's leaders. Beijing bluntly criticized the North's nuclear test and backed the sanctions.

Paik Hak-soon, head of North Korea studies at Seoul's Sejong Institute, said the move was in line with the North's policy that there was no change to its principled position that it will achieve denuclearization through dialogue and negotiations. "The confrontation (between the United States and North Korea) had reached a peak, but nobody could afford to have war, so the possibility of dialogue had increased also," Paik said. "It doesn't mean there will be a resolution right away, but the crisis will probably go into a period of latency," he said.

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at People's University in Beijing, said Pyongyang hoped to alleviate China's anger and prevent more serious sanctions. But Shi was convinced North Korea had not changed its determination to possess and develop nuclear weapons. "I don't think the chaos stemming from North Korea's nuclear test has been fundamentally erased," Shi said. "I think the potential for disputes between China and the United States and Japan will only escalate since North Korea has increased the flexibility of its policies."

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