Global Policy Forum

By Rob Crilly

International donors meet in Oslo today to agree a multi-billion-dollar development package for Sudan, amid fresh warnings that anything less than a major programme of funding could start a slide back to civil war in the south of the country. They say huge expectations of a peace dividend in the new southern capital, Rumbek - where officials have begun dreaming of international airports and power stations - could be dashed, with violent consequences.

A peace agreement in January ended the 21-year war between southern rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Army and the Khartoum government in the north. Now, attention is turning to development in a region where 90 per cent of the population earns less than $1 (53p) a day and average life expectancy is 42. Today, international governments will be asked to sign up to a £4.2 billion programme to provide clean water and basic health and education services.

It has been drafted by United Nations officials and teams from Khartoum and the south, and two-thirds of the money will come from Sudan's vast oil wealth, with the remainder requested from donors. Jon Bennett, the UN team leader of the Sudan Joint Assessment Mission, which drafted the programme, said huge expectations, coupled with a lack of financial infrastructure might mean delays in seeing a peace dividend. "The whole equation adds up to the potential for a great deal of disappointment and, even worse, the potential for a return to conflict based around local resources," he said.

Nowhere are expectations more obvious than in Rumbek, a dusty, broken-down town chosen by the rebels as temporary capital of their "New Sudan". Maker Aliap, a tobacco seller in the town's market, says: "We want a city that is like London, but we don't have the human resources to build it yet." Around him, bare-footed children play amid the detritus of war. Trenches run beside the red-dirt roads, and three tanks rust on the ground where they were stopped by rebels.

Local people live in tukuls - round mud huts with thatched roofs. The few brick buildings were largely destroyed during the war that claimed two million lives. It all makes for an unlikely capital.

The optimism is based on Rumbek's potential wealth. Under the terms of the peace deal, a power-sharing government in the south - including rebels and representatives of the Khartoum administration - was handed a 50 per cent stake in Sudan's oil reserves. Back-of-the-envelope calculations by UN officials suggest that it could translate into revenue of $50 million a month. Already, there are signs of progress - aid agency money and entrepreneurs have arrived in the three months since peace.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has repaired miles of pot-holed tracks so that its huge lorries can rumble off into the drought-stricken countryside. Enterprising businessmen from the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, have set up a rudimentary mobile phone network and a bank has opened in one corner of Freedom Square, a dusty collection of football pitches and meeting places at the centre of Rumbek. Rebuilding the country's infrastructure will take years.

But before the fledgling administration can turn its full attention to schools, hospitals and the rule of law, there is a more pressing need - food. The WFP estimates that 3.2 million people in the south are in desperate need of emergency supplies after poor rains ruined last year's harvest. For now, aid agencies are pinning their hopes on the Oslo conference, which they believe will kick-start development and help attract back the engineers, doctors and other professionals Sudan needs to rebuild itself.

Ramiro Lopes Da Silva, the WFP's country director, said: "Sudan stands at a crossroads. One way leads to peace and development, while the other descends into increasing competition and tensions over scarce land and food."

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