Global Policy Forum

By Grace Bibala

Ofwono Opondo could serve as a useful role model in Kenya's dealings with the World Bank group. He can show our neighbour how to escape from both corruption and aid-addiction. Opondo serves as the Director of Information in the secretariat of Uganda's long-ruling "non-party" Movement. Opondo is notorious for his brusqueness and unapologetic zeal in exposing corruption among the country's legislators. Indeed, according to a report in the state-owned New Vision newspaper, Opondo recently used some choice language to tell off a female MP who accused him of lying (See page 14, The EastAfrican, February 17). All things considered, President Yoweri Museveni's choice of Opondo was a stroke of Machiavellian brilliance.

The brilliance of Opondo lies partly in his ability to upset political constituencies while scoring significant political goals for his bosses. For instance, his insistence that some Members of Parliament are corrupt and otherwise crooked has earned him significant wrath. However, it scored two big goals for his bosses.

First, it has created the impression that the Museveni administration is bent on fighting corruption, regardless of the closeness of the perpetrators to the Movement. Two, it has made Opondo's bosses look good by providing an opportunity to Moses Kigongo, the Vice Chairman of the Movement, to play the role of reasonable conciliator. The Machiavellian ploy of appearing reasonable through the initial encouragement of and consequent comparison with a pugnacious person often works surprisingly well in negotiations. That is why President George W. Bush's well-oiled war machine often unleashes Donald Rumsfeld - the reportedly brusque Defence Secretary - before deploying the more diplomatic Colin Powell. In the same way, Opondo's reportedly brusque personality is a powerful tool in situations that call for telling off a heavyweight adversary.

Right now, Uganda's easterly neighbour, probably needs to tell off a few heavyweights itself. Kenyans gave President Mwai Kibaki a clear mandate to shake up things. Shaking up things may require "doing an Opondo" in a few relationships, including the country's relationships with multilateral entities like the IMF and World Bank. The rationale for telling off the World Bank is derived from an analysis of Kenya's economic history and expectations.

One of the most cited expectations of Kenyans, following the assumption of power by Kibaki, is the resumption of IMF aid to the country. Aid resumption will certainly involve several negotiations. The IMF is unmistakably a tough negotiator. Tough negotiators are known for exploiting the weaknesses of the opposite party. One of Kenya's weaknesses may be the perception that the country is desperate for aid resumption. This weakness is self-inflicted because Kenya has reason for not being desperate for IMF/World Bank assistance.

The recent economic history of Kenya shows that the country has indeed suffered from the decade-long IMF embargo. Yet the country's economy has not collapsed, nor is it about to collapse. Indeed, Kenya seems to have registered positive, albeit tiny, economic growth during the 2001/2002 financial year. This is credible evidence that some fundamental strength has kept the Kenyan economy afloat. If that strength is identified, maintained and developed, then Kenya would be much less desperate for IMF/World Bank assistance.

IMF aid resumption is reportedly dependent partly on Kenya's progress in fighting corruption. If the corruption problem is as large as indicated by the World Bank and the corruption-ridden Kenyan economy has managed to somehow stay afloat, then a significant reduction in corruption could outweigh the damage of being denied access to aid. In other words, if John Githongo, President Kibaki's anti-corruption czar, institutes a world class anti-corruption regime in the country, Kenya's need for assistance would be much less. Furthermore, the World Bank is indeed a bank. It is well known that the less a bank customer seems to need a loan, the more willing a bank is to provide one. In Kenya's case, a combination of deep reduction in corruption incidence and willingness to do an Opondo on the Bretton Woods institutions, could ensure a partnership that offers truly sustainable development.

Grace Bibala writes from Kampala on economic and policy issues.

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