Global Policy Forum

After the American Senate overwhelmingly approved "permanent normal trade relations" for China last month, only one piece of the puzzle known as the Clinton-China legacy had still to be put in place—China's admission to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). With Congress out of the way, the administration hoped to usher China into the WTO by the end of this year, just before the president leaves office. But now China is unlikely to join until next year, or even later, and for the most obvious of reasons: it may be urgent for Mr Clinton, but it is not so for the Chinese.

China had been keen to join the WTO so long as a new round of global trade talks appeared imminent. Until recently, American and European trade officials were talking optimistically of launching a new round by the end of the year, or early next. Now, with many poorer countries loudly expressing their reluctance to join a new round until previous promises on agriculture and textiles are fulfilled, prospects have dimmed. That gives China a lot more slack; and it intends to take full advantage of it by pushing for more favourable accession terms. Hence the hardline position recently adopted by Long Yongtu, China's chief trade negotiator. He has challenged many details of the 36 preparatory agreements that China signed with WTO members, which its co-signatories had assumed were implicit. These details include such matters as China's use of agricultural subsidies that the WTO usually reserves for developing countries.

China's erstwhile urgency also meant that a lot of technical points had to be left out of the negotiations, which focused mainly on broad tariffs and quotas. Important details, such as who would be responsible for regulating the quality of imports and which officials would actually assess custom duties, were left to be decided later—and remain unresolved. With time no longer so pressing, these details are now being subjected to classic Chinese stalling.

Having looked closer at China's proposed trading regime, many WTO members, rich and poor, are unhappy. China has proposed separate inspection standards for domestic and foreign products—a loophole that could provide ample opportunity for blocking unwanted imports. Chinese import regulations are hazy at best; a shipper faced with a bribe-seeking bureaucrat has no obvious legal respite. The Chinese argue that no member should be subject to more than the WTO's existing rules, and insist that "mutual trust" and "mutual confidence" ought to be enough. But China is not like other countries. America is setting up a new secretariat in its Commerce Department solely to verify China's implementation of new agreements. Countries that lack America's resources will not be placated by words alone.

Charlene Barshefsky, America's trade representative, who has long campaigned for China's WTO membership and is likely to leave office with Mr Clinton, and Pascal Lamy, her European Union counterpart, are both due to visit Beijing this month. The WTO's working party on China, whose Swiss chairman issued a stern reprimand to all parties at the end of the most recent meeting, is to meet again in early November. But the Chinese will still hold most of the cards.

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