Global Policy Forum

By Richard Waddington

France's Pascal Lamy strengthened his bid to take over as head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday when he emerged a clear first in the latest round of soundings of members. The race for the top job in world trade, which began with four candidates, was reduced to two contenders when Mauritian Foreign Minister Jaya Krischna Cuttaree became the latest to drop out.

Cuttaree, who had the backing of a host of poorer states, came narrowly third behind Uruguayan former trade envoy Carlos Perez del Castillo after a second round of consultations with the 148-state membership. "Mr Pascal Lamy had the highest level of support, both in terms of preferences and in terms of breadth of support," said Kenyan ambassador Amina Mohamed, who heads the three-person selection committee for the new director-general. She said that Cuttaree had informed her that he was withdrawing from the race. "I have to accept the result of the competition," the Mauritian told Reuters in Port Louis earlier. Lamy, who was European Union trade commissioner from 1999 to 2004, also came first earlier this month in the initial round of consultations, after which Brazilian candidate Luiz Felipe Seixas Correa was eliminated.

A final round of consultations will aim to discover by the end of May whether Lamy or Perez del Castillo can get consensus backing of the Geneva-based body, which sets world trade rules. If consensus is not possible, then the rules allow for a vote. But diplomats are anxious to avoid an electoral showdown because it could just stir antagonisms at a time when the WTO is already struggling to complete delayed free trade negotiations. Mohamed said the next soundings to find a successor to incumbent Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand, who stands down at the end of August, will begin in the week starting May 9.

Tactical Voting

Strong support for Lamy had been expected, with European diplomats saying earlier that they thought he had the backing of at least 75 of the WTO's members. "I detect a growing tide in his favor and I believe that this is good for the WTO and its work," said his successor as EU trade chief, Peter Mandelson.

But the selection process is not a straightforward matter of counting preferences. The successful candidate needs to show broad backing across the various regions of the world. It is also important that he does not face vehement opposition. Mauritian diplomats said Cuttaree lost out because many European Union states had put the Uruguayan, a widely-respected former head of the WTO's executive General Council, as their second choice, preferring a run-off against him.

The WTO was rocked by bitter feuding at the last leadership contest in 1999, and in the end had to agree to split the term in two, with former New Zealand premier Mike Moore serving first, followed by Panitchpakdi. The fear is that if the election deteriorates into a confrontation between North and South, as rich and poor nations are usually classified, this could further delay the WTO's Doha Round of free trade negotiations which faces a crucial year.

The round, whose successful conclusion could inject billions of dollars into the world economy, is already behind schedule and the WTO has set an end-year deadline for key accords. Unlike at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the head of the WTO has little power of decision, but he can exert significant personal influence.

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