Global Policy Forum

By Adam Lusekelo

Africa's ambitious new development plan, Nepad, is examining how poverty and instability can spawn conflict and terrorism. Even before the 11 September attacks there was a recognition that poverty in one part of the globe creates scope for regional conflict and international crime. "It is futile, if not foolhardy to think there is no link between poverty and terrorism," says Tanzania's President Benjamin Mkapa. Links to Al Qaeda have been found in several African countries - and Kenya and Tanzania experienced the direct effects of terrorism in 1998 when their citizens died in bombings of US embassies. Kenyans suffered again last year when a tourist hotel was blown up. In a second report on Nepad, the BBC World Service examines the importance of tackling arms control and conflict.

Aid cuts

There has been a growing realisation that there can be no security for any of us unless globalisation is managed with greater justice. UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has acknowledged how terrorism can come from "pent up feelings of injustice and alienation from divisions between the world's richer and poorer nations". African leaders have devised the Nepad partnership, pledging themselves to deliver transparent government in return for more support for Africa's development plans from the world's wealthy nations. During the 1990s, aid to Africa fell by a third, from $17bn at the start of the decade to $12bn. As a result, "Africa is the poorest continent and its getting poorer", says UK International Development Minister Clare Short.

Security commitment

Since the end of the Cold War, the world's richer nations have preferred to ignore places such as Somalia and Sudan, where their attempts to quell conflict have failed. But there is now greater engagement in Africa's failures than would have been thinkable a decade ago. Britain's military intervention in Sierra Leone in support of the elected government is one example, and contrasts with Europe's failure to prevent genocide in Rwanda. Mr Blair has said that if Rwanda happened again, his country would have "an absolute duty" to intervene. But although prospects for peace are better now than for decades - with hope for Congo, Angola and Sudan - the challenges to development as a result of war are enormous.

Terrible toll

Some 20% of Africa's people are affected by conflict, and most of the victims are innocent civilians. The World Bank estimates that conflict is knocking 2% a year off Africa's economic growth. Large numbers of refugees place a burden on neighbouring countries; Tanzania, for instance, has taken in 1.5 million refugees in the last decade. Regional instability also cripples efforts to control the spread of HIV. The Nepad framework therefore envisages support for peacekeeping from developed countries in return for better governance from African leaders.

Fair trade hypocrites?

But the benefits of political stability can only flow if macroeconomic policies are also right. Much depends on whether G7 leaders' self-criticisms prove sincere. In particular, trade policies are seen as a test of developed nations' good faith. Lectures on fair trade doled out by industrialised countries, whilst protecting their own local interests, have been widely resented, particularly on farm subsidies. African states are being conditioned "not to subsidise agriculture on which the lives of our people depend", says Tanzania's President Mkapa. Muthoni Muriu, Oxfam's regional manager for West Africa, adds: "If agricultural products from developing countries were able to compete fairly, the foreign exchange would be six times the amount of aid they receive." By stressing a partnership between African and G7 nations, Nepad's development blueprint aims to tackle Western high-handedness. Nepad's co-ordination should put a stop to the lack of equality that produced unsuitable liberalisation policies, argues Aluko Olokun, Nigeria's representative on Nepad's steering committee. But critics of Nepad warn that Africa's rush to embrace globalisation is fraught with economic dangers. They see little respect or equality in the developed world's approach.

Teaming up

Key players in Nepad would agree that trade pacts are skewed in favour of the developed world. "The answer... is not to walk away but to ensure that we work even harder to build stronger alliances between the developing countries," says South African trade negotiator Faizel Ismail. Another Nepad priority is to grow trade within Africa as the continent accounts for less than 1% of global trade, says Silencer Mapuranga of the Commonwealth Business Council. A unified stance and more internal trade could increase Africa's clout. "If the whole of Africa works together then it is much more realistic to consider a greater equality of power," says Alec Erwin, South Africa's trade minister, pointing to "immensely rich" energy, mineral and agricultural resources. Perhaps the biggest challenge Africans now face is to recognise that there is potential for progress. At present, 47% of African savings are sent out of Africa by Africans themselves. If we don't believe in our own continent, who will? BBC World Service Radio will broadcast the second programme in Adam Lusekelo's series, "A Fresh Start for Africa?" on Thursday 27 March.