Global Policy Forum

By Judith Achieng

A new report indicates that, for the first time, the incidence of HIV/AIDS may have stabilised in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the worst hit region. In the joint report: "AIDS in Africa - Country by Country", the UNAIDS and the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), provide new data on the dramatic impact of HIV/AIDS on Sub Saharan Africa indicating that new infections in 2000 totalled some 3.8 million, compared with four million in 1999.

This however, is both good and bad news, and could even change if rates go up in countries where they are still fairly low. "First, prevention has helped reduce infection rates. Second, with over one in four adults infected in some countries, fewer people are still likely to become infected," the report notes. The new report, profiles 53 African countries painting a picture of the current state of the HIV pandemic in the continent, its impact on the socio-economic fabric and the response so far adopted by various governments to the crisis.

The epidemiological indicators in the study were based on the HIV surveillance of pregnant women attending ante natal clinics and the assumption that the epidemic is largely driven by heterosexual transmission and has spread into the general population in sub-Saharan Africa. The HIV/AIDS tragedy in Africa has been described as an emergency of unprecedented proportions, which threatens to derail Africa's development and could surpass the number of casualties in all the 20th century put together.

The data by region indicates that Southern Africa is by far the worst hit region, exceeding the rates in East Africa, the region once with the highest infection rates in Africa. The situation in Botswana is described as shocking, with 35.8 percent of the adult population infected, triple the rate in 1992 estimated then at 10 percent. South Africa comes second in that region with 19.9 percent infected, a sharp rise from last year's 12.9 percent. In Zimbabwe, life expectancy has reduced to 43 from 65 as a result of HIV/AIDS. Zambia, too, is badly off with one in four adults living in the cities, and one in seven infected in the rural areas.

In East Africa, Uganda remains a showcase for successful prevention of HIV through strong prevention programmes, bringing its prevalence rates down from 14 percent in the early 1990s to about eight percent, currently. This year's World AIDS Day will, in fact, be marked by a visit to Rakai, a village in a southern of Uganda devastated by AIDS in the late 1980s, leaving thousands of orphans, head of UNAIDS Peter Piot.

The story, however, has not been as successful in neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia, whose figures have reached double-digits and, according to UNAIDS, continue to rise. In the Kenyatta National Hospital, in Kenya, for example, HIV positive patients occupy at least 39 percent of beds. In Prince Regent Hospital in Burundi, up to 70 percent of beds are occupied by AIDS patients.

West Africa is relatively less affected, with prevalence rates averaging two percent in some countries. However, Ivory Coast is ranked among the 15 worst affected countries in the world, while Nigeria, the most populous country in the region, has 2.7 million of AIDS sufferers. Similarly, North and Middle East Africa have fared better than other regions in the continent, with countries like Algeria recording rates as low as one percent in pregnant mothers, but figures indicate that the virus is steadily spreading. This year alone, some 80 000 cases were reported in the Middle East region.

Public health spending for AIDS, too, has gone up, exceeding two percent of the GDP in seven out of the 16 African countries sampled. This is a "staggering" figure for countries used to spending only between five and seven of their national income on health. In South Africa, HIV/AIDS is expected to "wipe out some 22 billion US dollars" from the economy and 20 percent of the government budget in Botswana by 2010.

This grim picture, in the continent, will be the main topic to be discussed by some 1,500 African leaders and policy makers at the Africa Development Forum 2000 to be held in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa on December 3-7. This year's forum, organised by the ECA in collaboration with UNAIDS, the UN development Programme (UNDP), UNICEF, the World Bank and other partners, has been designed, according to the ECA, "to serve as the launching pad for new levels of commitment and concerted action against HIV/AIDS by leaders at all levels" from the momentum built earlier this year built by the world AIDS conference in Durban.

It will also provide an opportunity for leaders in the continent to share experiences and learn from HIV/AIDS policies that have worked elsewhere. "Its overarching objective is to generate the highest level of scientific, technological, traditional and intellectual leadership commitment possible, at all levels of society and the development community towards addressing the pandemic and mitigating the devastating impact it has already registered on the continent," a spokesperson for the ECA, Peter Da Costa, said.

In January this year, the UN Security Council debated AIDS as an issue of human security for the first time ever, meeting on a health issue. Last month, African trade unions joined the war against AIDS and vowed to commit their resources to create awareness in the working place, to prevent further deaths and economic losses.

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