Global Policy Forum

By Anthony Kuhn

China's Growing Influence

Every day seems to bring a new statistic about China: The communist giant has become the world's third-largest trading nation; it has the most cell phone subscribers in the world; it emits the most carbon gases.

Some media refer to this as the rise of China. Chinese people see this as their country's rightful return to the dominant position it occupied in Asia for much of the past 2,000 years. That's with the exception of a 150-year slump, when China was ravaged by Western imperial powers and its own civil war. While China's influence was previously limited mostly to East Asia, now global trade and communications make its reach and impact worldwide. China has not articulated a clear plan or strategy for the role it wants to play in the world, leading to some misgivings and apprehension.

Much of China's growing reach comes from its economy, which is entering a new "outward bound" phase. After years of functioning as a foreign investment-driven export platform, China is moving up the value chain. Its companies are searching for new markets and technologies. They are using the foreign currency earned from trade to snap up foreign assets, from companies and securities to energy supplies. Many of the resources it is acquiring are in Third World countries, where instability and bad governance have kept Western multinationals from operating.

The increases in international trade, tourism and cultural exchanges have given China a substantial national interest overseas. Under the more orthodox communism of Chairman Mao Tse-tung, national interest was considered a bourgeois concept, inimical to the international solidarity of the proletariat. While China has not clearly defined its national interest, there is no doubt that it has one. Several years ago, China's Foreign Ministry created a department to protect the safety of Chinese nationals living and working overseas, indicating that the government recognizes these interests and must protect them. Under Mao, China saw the international order as dominated by Western imperialism, and sought to export revolution against that order. Now, China sees itself as a key member of the international order, with an interest in helping to write the world's rules and maintain its status quo.

Beijing has also come to realize that growing hard power - that is, political, economic and military strength - must be accompanied by soft power. If other countries mistrust its intentions, more power will lead to less security. China's progress in building soft power is visible in the growing numbers of young people studying the Chinese language.

In many media reports, China is portrayed as an economic success story for its rapid development and achievements in pulling millions of people out of poverty. It also represents a somewhat darker success story: the Communist Party's track record of economic reform without loosening its stranglehold on political power. But China has had difficulty deciding what values it stands for and can promote. To the official Chinese mindset, the way to build soft power is to crank out more and better propaganda. Critics argue that the salient feature of government propaganda is that it tends to fly in the face of reality. With soft power, analysts point out, it's what you do, not what you say.

Carnegie Institute for International Peace scholar Ding Xueliang draws a parallel with China's military. It has formidable military power within its own borders, but it lacks the ability to project that power - for example, through the use of aircraft carriers. Likewise, China is rich in cultural resources, but has had difficulty harnessing these resources to build soft power commensurate with its hard power.

The Summer Olympics in Beijing will be a telling test of how China presents itself to the world. The unrest in Tibet will test its ability to respond with confidence and deftness in the face of protests and public relations blunders that are likely to occur. All that we can be sure of now is that China and the Olympics are sure to leave their marks on each other.

China Alters Its Role in World Economy, Diplomacy

Anyone reading the headlines these days can see that China's growing influence is being felt across the globe and in all areas of life. Much of that increasing involvement comes through the world economy. After years of attracting foreign investment, China is now investing overseas itself, prospecting for new markets and raw materials for its intensive economic growth. In the process, it has taken on new risks, responsibilities and a national interest beyond its own borders.

One overseas entrepreneur is Jacob Wood, born Hu Jieguo in Shanghai, who has spent the last 30 years building an African business empire called the Golden Gate Group. It includes hotels, restaurants and construction and real estate firms. Golden Gate employs 20,000 people, most of them Nigerians. Wood enjoys the status of an honorary Nigerian chieftain, which came in handy last year, when kidnappers seized several groups of Chinese oil workers in Nigeria. Wood used his honorary position to help negotiate for their release, and he suggested that oil companies try adopting corporate responsibility.

"We tried to help them," Wood says. "But also we tell them, you know, for next time what they should do, right? We should do more ... community jobs. Build schools, build hospitals for them. Like everybody love you. Not like people feel you come here just to take oil."

Getting Involved

China's new role overseas is changing its long-stated policy of noninterference in other countries' affairs. In the past, "Whenever the issue of peacekeeping came up, China would either not participate or abstain," says Wu Jianmin, who served as a junior diplomat at the United Nations in 1971, when China had just retaken its U.N. seat from Taiwan. "We felt that peacekeeping did not fit our idea of nations minding their own business."

Now, Wu notes, China has 8,000 peacekeeping troops overseas. The message seems to be that it's now acceptable to interfere in other countries' affairs, as long as there's a United Nations mandate. "We are a part of the existing international system," Wu says. "We are its beneficiaries. The international system is evolving and we are participating in it and constructing it."

Analysts say China is gradually becoming more responsive to international demands to put diplomatic pressure on authoritarian regimes such as Sudan, North Korea and Myanmar (still referred to by many as Burma). China's special envoy on Sudan's Darfur refugee issue, Liu Guijin, recently responded to foreign criticism that Beijing is shielding Khartoum from censure. "China's basic policies on the Darfur question are not substantially different from those of Western nations," he said. "We agree that the international community should speak with one voice and exert equal influence on the Sudanese government and rebel forces ... or, as Western nations prefer to say, exert pressure."

Downplaying Capabilities

Western governments are far from satisfied with China's contributions on the Darfur issue. Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi recently said that China would shoulder more responsibility for world affairs, but he cautioned that this was not just to please specific countries. "Frankly speaking, China, as a developing country, cannot undertake a level of obligation that goes beyond its capacity," he said. "I would like to emphasize that we are not taking international responsibilities to serve the interests of certain countries." Even the downplaying of its capabilities has become a part of China's foreign policy.

Jin Canrong, an international relations expert at People's University in Beijing, says that China portrays its relations with other countries as a win-win game and aspires to wield power humbly. But Jin adds that as China becomes more powerful and confident, these pledges are coming under increasing criticism. "One direct cause for this is Taiwan's pro-independence provocations," he says. "People on the mainland think: 'We've been putting up with these troublemakers for too long, we ought to just whack them.' There are others who say there's no point in downplaying China's capabilities when everyone knows what they are."

China's government has quietly ditched the official term "peaceful rise" to describe its re-emergence as a major power. Critics say that sticking to this description would limit China's options. Other skeptics point out that such a peaceful rise has no precedent in human history.