Global Policy Forum

By Michael Littlejohns

As the US presidential election draws closer to a probable Monday tie-breaker, there's a fair amount of nail biting in the UN. (Chewing on his nails is said to be one of Al Gore's bad habits, and with all that suspense of waiting for the result one wonders if he has a nail left; George W. Bush's recent problem was a facial boil, also a sign of stress.)

But it takes a lot to faze Kofi Annan, and if he's worried about who will be the eventual winner the Secretary General's habitual sunny countenance disguises it. Elsewhere in the headquarters, there's concern aplenty that regardless of whether Laura Bush gets to choose the new White House drapes, or it's Tipper Gore, the four-year forecast for the UN is not rosy. Republicans retaining the House by a tiny margin and the possibility of a 50-50 Senate division surely adds up to potential gridlock. Getting vital domestic legislation through may be hard enough. So who has time for Turtle Bay?

Although a few Western European leaders were in unseemly haste to congratulate Gov. Bush the night of Nov. 7, on the basis of TV projections, most reports indicate that they still hope and pray he doesn't win and that Gore triumphs. UN sentiment is similar by all accounts.

With the possible exception of Jimmy Carter, no recent US president has been willing to get too close to or too supportive of an Organization about which there's considerable ambivalence among Americans, no matter what some favorable public opinion polls may say. Bill Clinton worked on the Congress to have those huge US arrears paid, but not really all that hard, and in any case the check still isn't in the mail. It was Bill, with an assist from Madeleine Albright, who shafted Boutros Boutros-Ghali, just a year after showering him with praise. (Kofi Annan may ponder what his chances are with Bush or Gore if he seeks a second term next year.)

Way back, Richard Nixon thought so little of the UN that he sent a former Washington wire service reporter to represent the US here, after declaring in effect that the Organization was perhaps OK in the socio-economic field but poison when it came to politics. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, now being canonized as he prepares to turn over his New York delegation seat to Hillary, wrote a book about his experiences as the US ambassador, titling it "A Dangerous Place." And he's a Democrat. (It was Moynihan who once opined that it would be dishonest to use his eight-month UN sojourn as a springboard to elected political office.)

Barbara Bush relates in her memoirs that she and George Sr. weren't all that comfortable at the UN, when he was the ambassador. It took a bit of coaxing after he became President to get him to attend the UN's Summit for Children, and he didn't stay very long. Still, he was very big on foreign policy and that was a plus of sorts for the UN, which repaid him by snapping smartly to attention when the Security Council was needed for sanctions against Iraq, and to give its blessing to the Gulf war.

Boy George visited the old folks when Poppy was the US envoy in China. He's also made a trip or two to Mexico; but he's mostly stayed home. Foreign affairs is not his long suit, as the televised debates with Gore demonstrated. He's reported to have ignored a questionnaire from the UN Association of the US seeking his views about the UN, during the campaign. This is not surprising: anyone familiar with the great Lone Star State will confirm that few Texans bother their little heads with confusing things like foreign policy, unless the safety of state and nation is at stake. (In Big D, don't mention the UN or you'll likely get an earful.)

"Earth in the Balance," Gore's best-seller, enhanced his reputation as an environmentalist. But in the domestic debate on global warming and what to do about it he might be able to make a stronger case outside the White House than within, although don't expect him to see it that way. He was easily persuaded to come to New York to preside briefly for the Security Council's discussion of Africa and he probably worries more than George W. about the plight of poor, developing countries, which is a constant worry at the UN. Still, Bush did trumpet compassionate conservatism, so who can tell?

A commentary in Jane's Foreign Report in early August, when George W. led comfortably in the polls, mentioned his tight-knit collection of foreign policy advisers "who learned the ropes during the Reagan years and during his father's term in the Oval Office" and who for the past 12 months "have been explaining the way the world works to the Texas governor." Gen. Colin Powell, who gets along well with Kofi Annan, could become secretary of state in a Bush administration (or a Gore one, according to some speculation), but what was good thinking back in August may not be today, when the winner could decide to reach over to the other side to fill some cabinet offices, as Kennedy did after his close victory 40 years ago.

Condoleeza Rice at the National Security Council might be bad news for both the UN and NATO, given her recent remarks about intervention in the Balkans. To succeed Richard Holbrooke, as Bush's man in New York, Jane's analyst tipped Paul Wolfowitz, "widely admired for his conceptual brilliance but less adept at bureaucratic infighting" and certain to be offered a top job.

Bush is confident enough to have begun tinkering with a transition team, and most handicappers believe that, post-Florida, he and Laura will be hosting a Texas style inaugural ball in January. UN, watch out!

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