Global Policy Forum

Washington's Stake

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Stratfor
February 12, 2002

Summary


The United States has joined several other countries in urging the United Nations and Cambodia to restart negotiations for an international tribunal for the Khmer Rouge. The U.N. recently ended five years of talks on the issue, claiming Cambodia was obstructing standards that would ensure an impartial trial. Washington's urgings may have less to do with human rights and international trials, however, than with ensuring that Cambodia remains engaged with the international community.

Analysis

The United States has joined several countries in urging Cambodia and the United Nations to restart talks aimed at establishing an international tribunal for the Khmer Rouge. Kent Wiedermann, the U.S. ambassador to Cambodia, told Reuters Feb. 11 that Washington was focused on getting Phnom Penh and the United Nations back together because the U.S. government believes "they are truly on the brink of an agreement."

Wiedermann's comments came just days after the United Nations ended five years of negotiations intended to create the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia -- a war crimes court for former Khmer Rouge leaders. The U.N. said the proposed tribunal "would not guarantee independence, impartiality and objectivity." Washington's attempts to get Cambodia and the U.N. back into talks may have less to do with ensuring impartiality in the trials, however, than with ensuring that Cambodia remains closely linked to the international community.

During the past five years, Cambodia has changed from a country wracked by civil war and violence to a relatively stable recipient of foreign aid and investment and a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Throughout that time, China, Vietnam, Japan and to some extent the United States have vied for influence in Phnom Penh. From Washington's point of view, keeping Cambodia engaged with donor nations and the United Nations dissuades the country from turning to alternate sponsors, such as China.

The proposed trial of former Khmer Rouge leaders has been a problematic issue for Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. On one hand, an internationally acceptable trial would add credibility and respectability to his administration. It also would ensure the continued flow of foreign aid, which is vital to the reconstruction of the war-torn nation. On the other hand, Hun Sen already made several deals with former Khmer Rouge leaders to lure them out of the jungles and end guerrilla fighting.

Compounding the issue is the involvement of foreign governments -- namely Vietnam and China -- during the Khmer Rouge period. Neither nation wants to see an international tribunal peer into its past deeds. China in particular has often weighed in against an international tribunal, instead supporting a domestic court that would focus solely on actions committed by Cambodians rather than on external supporters of the conflict.

Hun Sen is now trying to preserve his options after the U.N. withdrawal. He has held open the possibility of waiting for the U.N. to rethink its decision, but he contends that the trials must be held before general elections in 2003. As an alternative, Hun Sen has suggested inviting representatives of individual nations to witness the Khmer Rouge trials. In this way, Cambodia can avoid stirring up too many politically troubling issues while still obtaining a veneer of legitimacy -- and hopefully the foreign aid that entails.

With the United Nations abandoning the process, Washington is concerned that Cambodia may regress from international norms -- particularly if aid donors cut funding that was contingent upon the tribunal. This could stir instability in Cambodia, but on a strategic level, it could bolster Phnom Penh's ties with Beijing. The United States looks to Southeast Asia as a battleground in the anti-terrorism war and needs as many safe havens as it can find there.

In the longer term, however, Washington still views Beijing as its biggest challenger in East Asia. To prepare for a potential clash, the United States has stepped up contact with Southeast Asian nations. In the Philippines, the extended joint exercises that currently target Islamic militants may well lay the groundwork for a resumption of close military ties and help create a bastion against China. Washington has invited Vietnam to observe the regional Cobra Gold exercises in 2002, with the possibility of participation later. At the same time, the U.S. Navy has floated the idea of using Cam Ranh Bay once Russia's lease is up in 2004.

For Washington, the ultimate purpose of ties with Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and even Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia is to pre-empt or at least prepare for an eventual confrontation with China. And the fewer close allies China has in the region, the better the United States' position.


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FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C § 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.