Global Policy Forum

By Siobhán Dowling

Former guerilla leader Hashim Thaci has won elections in Kosovo and says he intends to declare independence by December. German commentators say that could mean that war is on the horizon.

Former rebel leader Hashim Thaci is likely to become Kosovo's next prime minister following the resounding victory of his Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) in elections on Saturday. The initial results indicate that the PDK won 34 percent of the vote, eclipsing the moderate League of Democratic Kosovo (LDK) which only won 22 percent of the vote. Ethnic Serbs, who make up 10 percent of the province's 1.5 million inhabitants, boycotted the elections, but turnout overall was alarmingly low at just 45 percent. Doris Pack, a member of the Council of Europe's election monitoring team, said it was a reflection of people's "profound dissatisfaction." "People in Kosovo are really fed up with their political situation," she told Reuters.

Thaci's PDK will now be expected to try to form a coalition with their rivals in the LDK, whose late leader was the pacifist Ibrahim Rogova. Thaci was a former leader in the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which fought Serbia is the 1998-99 war during which almost a million civilians fled Serbian repression. Thaci has said that he would declare independence from Serbia after Dec. 10, the date on which international mediators are due to report to the United Nations on their efforts to resolve the province's final status. "With our victory today begins the new century," Thaci told cheering supporters on Sunday. "We showed that Kosovo is ready to move forward towards freedom and independence."

Since 1999 Kosovo has been under UN control and Serbia has offered broad autonomy to the region but the Kosovo Albanians say they will accept nothing less than independence. European politicians urged Kosovo not to rush to declare independence in the light of the PDK victory. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said any hasty moves could lead to Kosovo's international isolation. "Mr. Thaci has to understand there is a difference between being a politician in opposition and a responsible prime minister," he told Reuters. "I don't think they (Kosovars) want to be independent from the international community." Wolfgang Ischinger, the German diplomat who is leading mediation along with American and Russian officials is due to meet Serb and Kosovo Albanian leaders in Brussels on Tuesday. German commentators on Monday are pessimistic about Kosovo's future and many newspapers predict that violence will once again flare up in the region.

The left-leaning Berliner Zeitung writes:
"The landslide victory of the former rebels PDK will not lead to a radicalization of Kosovo. But neither does the result point to the triumph of a stable democracy .... Kosovo is not a democracy. Power is not with the people but is exercized by international diplomats. The elections only imitated democratic techniques. The stifling domination of the bureaucrats leaves little room for responsibility, ideas, change, productive crises or true reconciliation." "It is little wonder that the turnout has dropped below 45 percent. Hashim Thaci's PDK ... is a clientele party with mafia traits. ...Thaci has taken some measures to counter this but he hasn't still hasn't succeeded. And the partly criminal, partly extremist scene near the northern and southern borders have at least indirect links with the PDK."

The left-leaning Die Tageszeitung writes:
"The victory is a reward for creating a halfway modern and moderate image and rejuvenating the party leadership. The old KLA people don't play an obvious role any more. If he succeeds in forming a coalition with the losing LDK party and other smaller parties ... then he could fulfil his promises. And he could see his dream of leading Kosovo to independence as prime minister fulfilled." "But it won't be so easy. The independence of Kosovo isn't worth anything if the country is not recognized diplomatically. Following Russia's veto on the UN Security Council and Serbia's tough stance, the US and the EU are reluctant to recognize Kosovo's independence this year. They want to play for time - to find a formula that will be acceptable to the Security Council and that would allow the European Union to replace the UN mission in Kosovo with an EU one." "But Thaci doesn't have time. (He) is expecting a decision now. Public opinion could quickly turn against him. And along with other radicals, his old marginalized comrades could take things into their own hands .... It won't be Thaci who decides how things go from here, but the US and the EU, who have to come up with a convincing prospect of independence for Kosovo ... by Dec. 10."

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:
"Hopes of a better life have been disappointed far too often in the UN protectorate and the people are tired of hearing hollow words. That is why more than half the voters stayed at home on Saturday. Eight years of constant uncertainty about the future of the province and the dominance of a corrupt Kosovo-Albanian pseudo elite have paralyzed the people. The fact that the godfathers of democracy - the UN, NATO and the EU - have tolerated these offences so as not to endanger political stability has made the crisis worse." "Thaci can only achieve a turnaround for the better if the EU pushes through a quick solution to the status issue and takes control of the province. That is the only way to open up new prospects for the people of Kosovo."

The business daily Handelsblatt writes:
"For two years the EU, the US and Russia have been trying to find a formula that the Serbs, the West and Russia could live with. A hopeless undertaking. Washington has made it clear for some time that it will recognize a unilateral declaration of independence, as have the majority of EU states." "There are two arguments against this. One is that the creation of a new state would set a precedence that Abkahzia can use against Georiga, as Taiwan could against China. But this is only diplomatic stage fighting - these states are de facto independent just as Kosovo is. Far more important is the danger that the new self-confidence of the Albanians will have an effect beyond the borders of Kosovo and cause counter reactions across the entire region."

Conservative daily Die Welt writes:
"The elections do not mark the end of the Kosovo crisis, rather they mark the way towards difficult conflicts, which could become violent. The consequences will not be confined to the Balkans." "Washington has already announced that it will recognize Kosovo, as has the majority of EU countries. Russia is giving the hardliners in Belgrade encouragement and support not only because of the pre-1914 sympathies and affinities due to their shared Orthodox religion, but much more because Moscow fears the uncontrollable effect on other national and ethnic egos." "If the north of Kosovo, which is mostly inhabited by Serbs, splits off from Kosovo and rushes into the open arms of Serbia, then the forces will be unleashed that showed their strength during the wars that marked the break up of Yugoslavia from 1991 and which could only been subdued from the outside - with force." "Is the EU and NATO ready for this? And where will the frontlines form? Firstly the Republika Srpska will break away from Bosnia-Herzevognia. The Europeans are involved there as they are in Kosovo - in order to preserve a peace that was never anything more than a ceasefire."

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