By Muzaffer Baca
AlertNetNovember 29, 2002
Muzaffer Baca is vice-president of International Blue Crescent, a Turkish humanitarian relief and development NGO. He argues that Iraq's civilian population would be put at increased risk of attack from Saddam Hussein's government if war escalates in the region, and that neighbouring countries would not welcome refugees.
Since 1979 Iraq has been one of the pariah states of the Middle East. The Baath Party regime launched an offensive to recapture the oil rich Khuzestan area from Iran and the devastating Iran-Iraq war ended with no substantial territorial benefit for either country.
During the eight-year war, hundreds of thousands of people from Iraq and Iran -- mostly civilians -- lost their lives, and the economies of both countries collapsed, fuelling the radical and non-democratic regimes of Saddam Hussein and Ayatollah Khomeini.
Innocent people paid the bill. Hundreds of thousands of people were expelled from their homelands and became refugees. Five thousand people in Halabja died from chemical bombs deployed by Saddam as a punishment for collaboration with the Iranians.
In 1991 we faced the occupation of Kuwait and the Gulf War. Saddam's regime attacked its own citizens again. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds and Turkomans from northern Iraq fled to neighbouring Turkey and Iran under the pressure of the Iraqi army. The use of chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq war increased their fear and forced people to leave their homelands.
After the Gulf War, northern Iraq was declared a no-fly zone for Iraqi warplanes and a de facto border between Iraqi authority and the autonomous Kurdish and Turkoman region has been established. The same applies to the Shias in the south.
Because of the U.N. embargo, people are living under severe conditions on both sides of Iraq -- the Saddam-controlled area and northern and southern Iraq. The instability creates an atmosphere in which terror and terrorist organisations can flourish.
There is no effective control of the central authorities or international institutions. Northern Iraq is a haven for drug and arms smugglers. Because of feuds between Shias and Sunnis and between different Arabic and Kurdish groups, it is very difficult to impose an effective governing authority and system.
On the other hand, more than 800,000 refugees expelled from the Saddam-controlled area have settled in northern and southern Iraq. Nobody knows whether Saddam will attack Shias or Kurds during a new war, but previous experiences show that Saddam's regime is likely to attack these groups they are cooperating with the coalition working towards his overthrow.
Nobody can ensure that Saddam's regime will not use chemical or biological weapons against the Kurds and Shias. During the Gulf War, Saddam took young children and U.N. officers as hostages. In a new war, he may plan to use Kurds and Shias as his captives.
Turkey, Iran and Syria are very sensitive about the potential creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and decided to act by any means to prevent such a development. Kurdish leaders have declared that their final target is the establishment of a Kurdish state. The Turkish parliament has approved a government declaration that such a step would be tantamount to a declaration of war.
All developments show that a war in the region would provoke new problems such as civil war, tribal clashes and even the use weapons of mass destruction. And the main victims will be hundreds of thousands of civilians in the region.
Analysing the reaction of Saddam's regime is like looking at a cat trapped by a dog. Nobody can predict how it will respond. If chemical or biological weapons are used, there will be massive human losses and environmental problems.
According to the contingency estimates of the Turkish government, more than one million refugees will move to the north. The Turkish and Iranian authorities have announced that they will not allow anyone to enter their territories. Camps have already been established in northern Iraq by the Turkish authorities to keep the refugee flow inside Iraq territory.
The Turkish Red Crescent has established 12 camps in northern Iraq, to cater for 240,000 people. If this is exceeded, six additional camps have been established on the Turkish side of the border.
For the staff of international institutions and humanitarian organisations, the situation is very tense and dangerous. Well prepared contingency plans in collaboration with local partners is advised. Border passes will be impossible in the event of war. Security measures must be taken, and advance warehousing projects should be launched.
In addition to these measures, medications to respond to biological and chemical attack -- such as atropine -- should be carried and vaccinations against epidemics carried out. Authorities in Turkey and northern Iraq have already issued the army and state employees with gas masks and medicines to counter biological and chemical warfare. Ordinary people have no way to protect themselves from biological and chemical attack.
Priority should be given to food and medicine delivery. The establishment of mobile hospitals and clean water supplies will be crucial.
As a Turkish journalist and member of the executive committee of a Turkish NGO, I am pessimistic about future developments because I see scores of potential benefits from such a war for everyone except the innocent. I am referring to terrorist groups, fundamentalists, the military, drug dealers in the region, black market profiteers, and the powers who are focused on the region's oil reserves and do not seem to care about human losses.
It is in our hands to campaign against such a war and persuade world leaders to solve the Iraqi question by peaceful means rather than devastating the region once again and creating new enmities that will fuel further wars.
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