By Laura Rozen
As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, with an avowed interest in nuclear disarmament, and a veteran Japanese diplomat at the helm of the UN atomic watchdog agency, Japan has found its role on international negotiations with Iran elevated with a push from the Obama administration, in particular as U.S.-Chinese relations are going through an extended adjustment period.
Japan's strong relations with both Washington and Iran have also led it to take on a key behind the scenes role in trying to negotiate a possible nuclear fuel swap deal between the West and Iran, regional expert sources said, although there were differing accounts of how promising such efforts have been.
At the same time, the Obama administration has been pushing for Japan to be represented in international diplomatic meetings on Iran, in part as a counterweight to Beijing. China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and the so called P5+1 group on Iran -- the permanent five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany -- has expressed misgivings about any new international economic sanctions on Iran even before the Taiwan arms sale deal was announced in Washington last week.
Washington Japan hands said a recent effort by Japan to invite Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani to Tokyo to discuss a possible nuclear fuel swap deal had been less than promising, while Iran experts said Japan had briefed the Obama administration earlier this month on a possible uranium fuel swap plan that resulted from their consultations with the Iranians. Japan's Foreign Minister Katsuyu Okada also met with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in Tokyo December 21st.
Under the alleged compromise fuel swap deal that Japanese diplomats quietly briefed U.S. officials on earlier this month, some 70% of Iran's low enriched uranium stockpile would be moved to Japan, according to what one Washington source, speaking anonymously, was told by the Japanese. Japan would then take responsibility for the stockpile, and ensure the delivery to Iran of fuel rods for nuclear medical use.
Japanese diplomats were said to consult several U.S. officials of the possible plan in Washington around January 15th, including a deputy to undersecretary of state Bill Burns, who was headed to New York for a January 16th meeting of the P5+1 group on Iran. The deal was described as having met a key western demand that Iran was previously said to reject: that 70% of Iran's LEU stockpile would be moved out of the country in one batch. U.S. officials did not provide comment for the article.
But a Washington Japan hand said Japanese-Iranian consultations on a possible uranium fuel swap deal this month had been less productive, and that the Japanese Foreign Minister had made public comments this month indicating Japan might be willing to go along with the international community should it decide to impose further economic sanctions on Iran.
So hinted a senior U.S. administration official when, in a background briefing Friday on the Taiwan arms deal, he was asked whether the Obama administration expected the arms sale to further reduce chances that China would go along with a new, fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran.
"The diplomacy surrounding the overall strategy with Iran extends beyond the P5+1," the senior administration official told journalists in a background briefing Friday. "In recent high-level meetings with other key Asian countries, the Secretary [of State Hillary Clinton] and others have underscored - for instance, Japan and others - that the next step will involve a more comprehensive set of stakes, taking affirmative actions, and that we are looking to support from key states like Japan in this process."
Getting at least one of the leading Asian powers, China or Japan, on board the international sanctions push was described as a key goal of the Obama administration to help legitimate any further economic sanctions and to make them more effective, a Washington Asia expert said. But Japan's support for such measures is not yet a sure thing, and the Obama administration would see failure to get both China and Japan on board any further Iran sanctions push as a disaster, the Japan expert said.
Japanese Foreign Minister Okada alluded in general terms to discussing Iran when he met with Clinton in Hawaii earlier this month. "As the Secretary just mentioned, we discussed Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, and also global warming, nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, Myanmar, et cetera," Okada said through a translator at a press briefing with Clinton in Honolulu January 12. "I'm not going to delve into details, I believe, but the mere fact that these diverse issues came up in our discussions I think is a testament to the importance of our Japan-U.S. alliance."
Japan's behind the scenes diplomatic role vis a vis the U.S. and Iran has been going on for some time and is built on several factors, observers say. Chief among them, that Japan enjoys good relations with both countries. Japan watchers said Iran and Japan share a view of themselves as being highly independent, fellow anti [western] imperialistic countries that have staked out their own paths.
Also valued by the parties is that Japan conducts such diplomacy with a high degree of discretion. Indeed, two sources aware of the Japanese role have been reluctant for it to be reported on for fear of possibly damaging the channel.
However, some Washington hardliners opposed to a nuclear deal with Iran are also aware of the Japanese role, and have expressed concern that any possible nuclear deal could derail international momentum for crippling sanctions on Iran. "I've heard that Japan has offered the Iranians to do the [fuel swap] in Japan with Obama's blessing," Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told POLITICO. "I think the White House really wants to return to a uranium export plan and would gladly accept this if Iran did. A massive turnout on February 11th [the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution] in Iran could derail all of this and expedite the discussion of sanctions."
Beyond its good ties with both Washington and Iran and diplomatic discretion, other factors elevate Japan's role on the Iran issue. Japan is currently a year into a two-year term as one of the 10 non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, where key western powers are attempting to get a fourth UN Security Council resolution passed in coming weeks condemning Iran's nuclear program. Particularly eager for a resolution to be passed this month are the French, who assume the presidency of the Security Council Monday for the month.
Japan also walked back from a military nuclear program, while having an extensive nuclear energy program. It was also of course the only nation ever attacked with nuclear weapons.
In addition, in November, a Japanese diplomat, Yukio Amano, succeeded Mohamed ElBaradei to become director general of the IAEA, in effect the top international nuclear negotiator in the world.
Over the weekend in Davos, Amano made his first public comments on the Iran IAEA negotiations since assuming the job late last year. "Our proposal is on the table," Amano told journalists at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. "Dialogue is continuing."
He declined to give further details.
UPDATE: A Western diplomat says Monday that "As far as the Japanese track is concerned, ... something was tried, but the Japanese told us directly that Iran [was] unwilling to accept anything."
