Global Policy Forum

by Shih Chun-yu

The deployment and buildup of US troops has become the focus of world concern after the 11 September terrorist attacks. People are asking: When will the Americans make their moves? How long is the war going to last? How great will its impact be on the US and global economy? Very few people, however, are concerned about the fate that is going to befall the Afghan people.

Many experts say that while it is difficult to predict how the war will develop, one unquestionable outcome is that Afghanistan which has been suffering from the chaos of war for more than 20 years will find itself in even more violent and prolonged turmoil.

Analysts attribute this to two reasons: First, the war is likely to go on for a long time. Second, there does not seem to be any political forces in Afghanistan capable of replacing the Taliban regime.

Suitable Candidate Difficult to Find

US troops are undoubtedly very strong, and it should be very easy for them to capture Kabul and other strategic strongholds. However, taking cities and seizing territories does not mean winning a war. When Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan, they were able to sweep across the country in less than a week. What happened was that after fighting arduously for 10 long years, with 14,000 troops being killed in action, they were still unable to control the situation and were ultimately forced to withdraw.

If the United States wanted to drive the Taliban regime out of Kabul, it naturally must find someone to fill the political vacuum. However, experts believe that none of their existing "candidates" are suitable.

Belonging to Ethnic Minorities

The only political and military force in Afghanistan capable of contesting the Taliban is the "Northern Alliance," which is one of the choices considered by the United States. The leader of the "Northern Alliance," Burhanuddin Rabbani, was the president of Afghanistan before the Taliban attacked and captured Kabul in 1996, a position reportedly still recognized by the United Nations. He days appeared to be numbered as he guarded his small piece of land in the northern territory with slightly over 10,000 troops.

The United States wants to use the "Northern Alliance" to spearhead the attack and is sending endless shipments of arms and equipment to Rabbani. It now appears that he has hopes for a comeback. However, with the recent assassination of his old warhorse, former Defense Minister Ahmed Shah Masood, his troops are left without a leader and hopes of winning in the first battle seem dashed. The biggest obstacle to the "Northern Alliance" wielding power is that it is made up Tajiks, Uzbeks and other minority ethnic groups, who are not accepted by the majority Pashtun people. This was the main reason why this long-tested soldier was driven out of Kabul by the Taliban's "student army" in the first place.

Ex-King Has No Desire of Seeking Restoration

Another much talked about candidate for taking over the helm was former King Zahir Shah who was dethroned in a coup 28 years ago. He is said to be the only person who is accepted by all ethnic groups and religious factions. The problem is that this ex-king who is now living in exile in Rome is already 86 years old and no longer has any political ambitions. Although he is willing to do something to help stabilize the political situation, he himself has no desire of being restored to the throne.

Further down the line of possible options are former warlords who were in a position of eminence during the war against the Soviets but now mostly live in semi-retirement. Many of them are still quite ambitious, but since they all have their ethnic and religious backgrounds and are backed by different countries, anyone who attempts to wield power will find a lot of people stepping forward in opposition. In the end, the country may once again slip back into the state of melee among warlords before the 1990s, and naturally it will be the Afghan people who will be suffering.

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