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Growing Concern of 'Balkanisation'

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By Kim Sengupta and Andrew Grice

Independent (London)
November 16, 2001

The first British ground forces left for Afghanistan last night and are expected to be on the ground by this morning as coalition leaders attempt to fend off the growing threat of a new civil war between anti- Taliban troops.


An advance unit of combat troops, engineers and logistics staff are believed to have been dispatched to Bagram airport, north of Kabul.

The forces sent will prepare a bridgehead for a large-scale reinforcements due to arrive on Sunday. Although a force of about 4,000 has been put on stand-by, it is believed the strength of the contingent will rise to "1,000-plus" in the first few days with Royal Marines and paratroops providing the combat elements. Meanwhile, the international community appealed for a meeting of Afghan tribal leaders as early as this weekend to form a new government and calm the rival factions.

The United Nations Security Council's hopes of a meeting seem doomed, however, because various groups from across Afghanistan are staking their rival claims to power.

There is also the looming prospect of clashes between Tajik fighters, who control Kabul, and Hazara guerrillas who are marching on the capital.

US and British military commanders agreed on the military deployment after a series of calls between the headquarters of Operation Enduring Freedom in Tampa, Florida, and Britain's Permanent Joint Headquarters at Northwood.

The UN had pinned its hopes on the 86-year-old former king, Zahir Shah, who has been in exile in Rome for 30 years, acting as a figurehead while the tribal warlords formed a broad coalition. But with the Northern Alliance forces, who captured Kabul without firing a shot on Tuesday, consolidating their hold on the machinery of government and security, other members of the loose anti-Taliban alliance declared their intention to dislodge them.

An army of Hazara fighters, which captured the city of Bamiyan on Monday is poised to send 3,000 troops into Kabul today, furious that the Northern Alliance has broken a promise not to enter the city. The Northern Alliance has solidified its hold by bringing up to 80 tanks into the city and seizing important ministries.

The fears about Kabul came to light as sharp differences emerged between the Allies fighting the war against the Taliban and Pakistan, the regime's former sponsors.

Britain rejected a call by Pakistan yesterday for a loosely knit federation of the country's different ethnic groups.

Britain fears the plan could lead to the "Balkanisation" of the region and might encourage countries such as Pakistan, India, Iran and Russia to spread their influence across the border and seek to draw provinces away from Afghanistan.

Pakistan is deeply worried that the Northern Alliance may win a too dominant role in the new administration and sees the idea of a federation as a possible antidote.

Major-General Rashid Qureshi, a spokesman for the Pakistani leader General Pervez Musharraf, said the idea of a loosely-knit federation and a weak central government in Kabul was under discussion in Islamabad. "That is a point that (has) occurred here," he said. He suggested that "a combination of various tribes and areas of influence" could form an interim set-up before Afghans "decide for themselves what sort of government they would like to have."

Maj-Gen Qureshi said Pashtuns in various parts of the Afghanistan were now "rising up against the Taliban government and actually moving towards what the world probably would like - a multi-ethnic dispensation in the future interim government of Afghanistan."

But the idea of giving autonomy to Afghanistan's tribal groups was sharply rejected by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, who believes a strong central government in Kabul is essential for the stability of the country.

"There was a relatively strong, stable Afghan state for 40 years up to 1973. So we have a fair idea of what works," Mr Straw said.

While the bulk of the British forces will concentrate on maintaining order and helping to distribute aid, units will join US forces in the hunt for Osama bin Laden and his al-Qa'ida network commanders.

Despite the desire of British commanders that their forces should have definite missions and a solid timetable, the deployment appears to be open-ended. Defence sources said there is no clear-cut plan on who will replace the British forces in the future and when that will take place.

Negotiations are still continuing with a number of Muslim countries, including Turkey and Jordan, for supplying reinforcement or replacement troops, but without any definite commitment so far.


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FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C § 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.