Global Policy Forum

By Colum Lynch

The reported assassination of Congo's president will complicate efforts by the United Nations to restore peace in the Central African country, but those efforts were already in trouble, diplomats said today.

"I don't think anybody could describe this as a sudden lurch in a negative direction," said one European official. "It's another negative turn in an already negative situation."

The United Nations has been trying for more than a year to send a large observer mission to the Democratic Republic of Congo to halt a civil war that has entangled a half-dozen neighboring countries.

It was unclear today whether President Laurent Kabila was killed in the assassination attempt at his palace in Kinshasa, the capital. Officials in Belgium, the country's former colonial power, reported that Kabila was dead. But some Congolese officials insisted he had survived.

Either way, U.N. diplomats said they are deeply skeptical about the prospect of sending a large U.N. observer mission in the near future. If Kabila is alive, said one official, he will have to devote his energy to his own survival and security. If he is dead, the country may be pitched into further confusion in the short term, with no guarantee that a peace-loving successor will emerge to take his place, the official added.

Susan Rice, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, said the United States would condemn Kabila's killing if the assassination reports turn out to be true. "Our view is that if in fact Kabila has been killed, that would be unfortunate and we would condemn it as we would violence used in this way anywhere," she said, according to Reuters.

But former diplomat Chester Crocker, who once held Rice's job, said Kabila's fall from power could eventually produce an opportunity to revive the peace process. "Kabila was the biggest single obstacle to anything constructive happening in that Godforsaken place," Crocker said, adding that Kabila's ouster could "push Kinshasa to get on the peace train."

Kabila seized power nearly four years ago from former dictator Mobuto Sese Seko. Originally, Kabila was backed by Rwanda and Uganda. But those countries turned against him and, in August 1998, transferred their support to rebels seeking to topple him. Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe subsequently entered the war on behalf of the Congolese leader.

In the summer of 1999, the combatants agreed at talks in Lusaka, Zambia, to halt the conflict and invite the United Nations to send in an observer mission. The United States sponsored a Security Council resolution in February to send more than 5,500 soldiers and observers to monitor a cease-fire in Congo and to plan for the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country.

So far, however, only 200 U.N. observers have arrived, and they have been prevented from traveling freely by forces from both sides of the conflict.

"Kabila's only one part of the problem," said a U.S. official. "There are seven or eight other actors in this play. And they are not keeping up their end of the bargain."

The United States and the United Nations have struggled to persuade both Kabila and his rivals to respect a cease-fire and cooperate with the United Nations. But fighting has continued unabated, with recent flare-ups in the provinces of Equateur, in northern Congo, and Katanga in the south.

"Despite the bits of paper they have signed, the key parties are still promoting a military approach," said a Security Council official. "Before you can get a peace process underway, you need stability and a commitment to a peaceful political process in the Congo."

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has refused to send more international troops to Congo until the warring factions demonstrate that they want peace. "The cooperation that would be necessary from the government to implement these plans has not been forthcoming," said Fred Eckhard, a spokesman for Annan. "The Security Council, though, has not wanted to shut down the mission."