April 26, 2002
This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations
The agreement reached late last week between the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the rebel Mouvement pour la liberation du Congo (MLC) was signed by more than 70 percent of the delegates taking part in the inter-Congolese dialogue (ICD) in Sun City, South Africa. This is according to the research firm Bureau d'etudes, de recherche et de consulting international (BERCI), which has a reputation for being independent.
Of about 366 delegates at the ICD, at least 258 had signed the agreement, BERCI reported, and other signatures could follow shortly. Besides the government and MLC delegations, all but about five civil society delegates, at least 30 of 69 unarmed opposition delegates, the Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie-Mouvement pour la liberation (RCD-ML), and RCD-Nationale (RCD-N) had supported it.
The rebel Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie (RCD-Goma), which condemned the agreement, on Monday gave the DRC government and MLC a week to return to the talks in Sun City, or face unspecified consequences. So far, no RCD delegate had defected to the pro-Kinshasa coalition, a pro-government source told IRIN, but some RCD members were expected to do so if they were assured of appointments to government posts.
Notably, the political parties best known for combating the DRC's past dictatorships have so far not signed up to the deal.
These include the Union pour la democratie et le progres social (UDPS) led by Etienne Tshisekedi, Parti des Lumumbistes unifies (PALU) led by Antoine Gizenga, Forces Novatrices pour l'Union et la Solidarite (FONUS) led by Joseph Olenghankoy, Mouvement des Nationalistes congolais (MNC-L) led by Francois Lumumba, and the G4 group of four parties led by Mbwebwe Kabamba. A spokesman for the MNC-L told IRIN, however, that the party would consider whether to sign at a general meeting.
There were reports last week that the UDPS would try to form an alternative government with Tshisekedi as president. However, a member of FONUS, John Masudi, said the proposal had so far failed to win sufficient support from other opposition parties.
SUMMARY OF THE AGREEMENT:
The agreement, which was first announced on 18 April, is entitled the "Political agreement on consensual management of the transition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo".
Some of its clauses specifically refer to the inclusion of the RCD in a new government, and of RCD troops in a new army, but these will presumably remain a dead letter until the RCD agrees to sign up to it, or a new agreement is reached.
The agreement allows the current president, Joseph Kabila, to retain his post during the transition and until elections are held, and creates several new institutions, notably the post of prime minister - to be filled by the MLC leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba - an assembly, a senate and a senior army council.
The president will be supreme commander of the army, which he will control through a senior army council, the agreement states. A law, yet to be passed, will determine the precise powers and functioning of this council. The president will nominate and revoke ministers and senior officials with the counter-signature of the prime minister, who will be the head of government, and preside at the council of ministers.
The delegations that attended the ICD dialogue are expected to submit lists of candidates for posts in the new government. The prime minister will have the power to turn down a candidate after consultation with the group concerned, the agreement states. The president will have the power to turn down candidates for posts concerned with the ministries of foreign affairs, defence and the interior.
"Given the consensual character of the transition, the assembly cannot vote a motion of no confidence in the prime minister and his government," says the text of the agreement. "Except in cases of treason, extortion or corruption, the president of the republic, the prime minister and the presidents of the assembly and senate will remain in office throughout the transition." The assembly will consist of 425 members designated by the groups represented at the ICD, and the senate of 65 members.
A mechanism will be established for the formation of a new national army, which will comprise government, MLC and RCD forces, says the agreement. RCD-ML, RCD-N and the Mayi-Mayi will also be part of this mechanism. A working group will be established to develop a transitional constitution for the country.
CONGOLESE REACTIONS TO THE AGREEMENT
Results of a recent opinion poll by the research firm BERCI suggest that the agreement is likely to meet with approval from many, if not most, Congolese people.
The poll - which surveyed 1,011 people and was conducted from 3 to 7 April, i.e. before the agreement was announced - found that 71 percent of respondents in Kinshasa thought a power-sharing deal between Kabila and Bemba would be "a good thing". A total of 54 percent of respondents in the four other towns surveyed - Kananga, Matadi, Mbandaka and Bandundu - approved of the same.
Asked about a power-sharing deal between Kabila, Bemba and the RCD president, Adolphe Onusumba, 68 percent approved in Kinshasa, and 53 percent in the other cities.
Approval ratings for a deal between Kabila and Onusumba on their own were lower, averaging around 30 percent, and deals involving another RCD personality, Bizima Karaha, recorded a 20 percent approval rate or less.
The researchers also asked respondents whom they would choose as prime minister. In Kinshasa, Tshisekedi (UDPS) topped the poll with 21 percent, followed by Antoine Gizenga (PALU) with 10 percent, and Bemba (MLC) and Joseph Olenghankoy (FONUS) with 6 percent each.
In the other cities, Tshisekedi scored an average of about 40 percent, Gizenga 2 percent, Bemba about 3 percent and Olenghankoy about 4 percent. Cardinal Monsengwo scored 49 percent in one town, but only 3 percent elsewhere. Joseph Kabila was not considered for the prime ministerial post.
Respondents preferred a "classical" system of president and prime minister (79 percent), rather than a rotating presidency (25 percent) as initially proposed by the MLC, or a system with two vice-presidents (23 percent) as implied by the scenario proposed by South African President Thabo Mbeki.
(Notably, the poll was only conducted in government-controlled territory, so the results may reflect a reluctance at the time of the poll to admit support for rebels such as Bemba or Onusumba.)
INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS TO THE AGREEMENT:
The facilitator of the dialogue, Ketumile Masire, has stressed that the agreement was reached outside the framework of the ICD and has called for a continuation of the ICD in reduced form. This suggestion has been rejected by the DRC government. Meanwhile, diplomatic sources in Sun City have said the government and MLC will no longer accept Masire as facilitator.
A spokesman for Mbeki has stressed that a partial agreement will not end the conflict in DRC or solve the country's problems. However, some South African officials have privately congratulated members of the RCD-ML for signing up to it.
The UN Security Council has welcomed the "significant progress" made in the talks, stating that the agreement "could facilitate the political transition and help to consolidate the regional peace process in the country". In a statement issued on 23 April, the Council said the fact that some participants in the ICD, in particular the RCD, had declined to be parties to the accord "threatens the hopes of peace that emerged in Sun City". France, Britain and Belgium also issued a joint statement supporting the agreement.
The US embassy in Kinshasa said: "The Sun City sessions of the inter-Congolese dialogue concluded Friday April 19 at Sun City without agreement among the Congolese participants. We continue to strongly urge all parties to the conflict in Congo to resolve their differences in negotiations. The inter-Congolese dialogue is a process, and it represents a crucial opportunity to achieve a lasting peace. While the conference as a whole did not reach a final agreement at Sun City, we are encouraged by the fact that some progress towards designing transitional government arrangements was made."
Unofficially, however, during the closing stages of the dialogue, an official from the US embassy expressed the view "that no party should be allowed to hold the dialogue hostage". Zimbabwean officials are saying they back the government-MLC agreement, as are Ugandan officials.
Meanwhile, in a statement issued by the Rwandan government - which backs the RCD - the agreement was described as "a non-starter". The statement said the deal was "an act of defiance against the Congolese people, the facilitator, the host country, and all the signatories of the Lusaka agreement", and that "Bemba sold his movement and his erstwhile allies down the drain".
It said the deal sought to consolidate Kabila's hold on power while ignoring the other parties, and had contemptuously left the political opposition and the civil society delegation out. In line with the RCD position, Kabila's government supports a return to Sun City to continue discussions in a "follow-up committee".
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