Global Policy Forum

By Asuman Bisiika

On Sunday July 30, the Democratic Republic of Congo held what has been variously described as the first democratic elections in forty years. The elections are also expected to end the prospects of war that has brought the mineral-rich African country to its knees. Although United Nations officials and international observers reported a high turnout and said the voting had been mostly orderly and peaceful, there still hangs an air of apprehension as the population awaits the final results of the poll. There were 32 presidential candidates and over 9,000 candidates running for Parliament. More than 25 million people are entitled to vote.

The final results of the elections are expected to be known by 31 August. If there is a clear winner with at least more than 50% of the total votes, the inauguration of the president-elect will be on September10. However, if none of the candidates gets the mandatory 50-plus percentage, there will be a re-run on October 29. In the event of a re-run, the swearing in of the president-elect would be postponed until December 10.

Which means, by January next year, the Democratic Republic of Congo will have a new president and a new government. The likely candidates to win the elections are incumbent President Joseph Kabange Kabila, Jean Pierre Bemba, US -based Dr. Oscar Kashala, Pierrer Pay Pay and Azarias Ruberwa. Given the timetable, one can decisively say that the region will have one of these men as the new president of the democratic Republic of Congo.

Regional Interests

Since the ouster of former Congolese President Mobutu in 1996, the DR Congo has been at the centre of regional geo-political dynamics. Insurgents opposed to the governments of Uganda and Rwanda have found safe havens in Western Provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu where vast areas have virtually no effective government control. This was the pretext of Ugandan and Rwandan armies' invasion of the DR Congo in 1998 that sparked off a melee as armies from over six countries rushed in to either support the government or rebel forces that were fighting to topple the government.

Needles to say, three of the five main candidates Kabila, Bemba and Ruberwa are well known faces in the Rwanda's and Uganda's high political and security circles. Three have at one time or the other enjoyed the support of Kigali and Kampala. However, it must be emphasised that by the time a transitional government was established in Kinshasa under a peace agreement, Jean Pierre Bemba was fully aligned to Uganda while Azarias Ruberwa enjoyed the support of Rwanda.

Who will win?

Of the five main contenders, incumbent President Kabila is the favourite to win the race; even with the potential to win outright in the first round. He is particularly popular in the East where a brutal war between 1998 and 2003 caused the death of an estimated four million people. He is seen as the man who ended the war and brought peace that has led to these elections.

Until recently, Mr Kabila was expected to stroll to an easy victory because in 2003 he helped to negotiate a settlement that ended five years of war and has presided over a fragile peace ever since. But his campaign team was shocked by the surprisingly effective campaigns of his main opponents: Jean Pierre Bemba and Professor Oscar Kashala from Harvard who returned from exile only a few months ago.

In response Kabila has taken the campaigns more serious: in the run-up to the election day, he dominated state television and radio. His opponents started to face more and more obstacles. Rumours abound of electoral registration malpractices, mysterious extra ballot papers and bribes.

Although political analysts say that Mr Kabila may win the election at the first round, it is however unlikely with a crowded field of 32 presidential candidates. It is actually almost impossible to secure the 50 per cent required without cheating. If he tries to win outright at the first round by 'whatever means', there could be an explosion. If he allows it to go to a second round, the anti-Kabila votes could be rallied for whoever will come second in the first round (Jean Pierre Bemba?) and Kabila could well lose. It is a catch 22 for Kabila.

It is unlikely that Kabila's people would accept anything other than a win. With the second round scheduled for October 29, there are more months of uncertainty and the danger that disgruntled losers could return to war.

Jean Pierre Bemba

Jean Pierre Bemba, who comes from Equatuer Province (Mobutu's home Province) is Joseph Kabila's strongest challenger and likely to be the runner-up. Born on November 4 1962 to millionaire businessman Jeannot Saolona Bemba, Bemba is currently one of four Vice Presidents in the transitional government. Bemba also leads the Movement for the Liberation of Congo, a rebel group turned political party.

Provisional results show that Bemba is likely to beat Joseph Kabila in the west where pro-Mobutuist sympathies are still alive. His millionaire father, Saolona Bemba, made his wealth during the Mobutu era. Jean-Pierre Bemba is reported to have invested about £20 million of his own money into his challenge.

Bemba's position is also strengthened by the fact that he still has loyal troops and has threatened to "set the country ablaze" if he thinks the polls are rigged. Already, newspapers sympathetic to the opposition are predicting his victory. If Jean Pierre wins the presidency, DR Congo's relationship with Uganda would drastically improve. He started his rebel outfit with the help of the Uganda government troops and has had a cosy relationship with the regime in Kampala. Pierre Bemba attended President Museveni's swearing ceremony on May 12 this year in his personal capacity. The official delegation from Kinshasa was led by Azarias Ruberwa; another Vice President. Bemba is expected to win Equatuer, Bandundu, Kinshasa and Bas Congo provinces; three of DR Congo's ten provinces.

Dr. Oscar Kashala

Dr Kashala worried the Government this month by becoming the first person to fill the 20th of May Stadium in Kinshasa since Muhammad Ali fought George Foreman in the 1974. The authorities then grounded Dr Kashala's chartered aircraft on safety grounds. When he found an alternative, he suddenly discovered a nationwide shortage of aviation fuel. His campaign T-shirts and caps were also impounded.

The 51-year-old Harvard-trained doctor from East Kasai province is currently a cancer consultant in the United States and also works as an expert with the World Health Organisation. Dr. Kashala is a political novice, having only recently returned to his native country earlier this year after leaving in 1987. He is the head of the Union for the Reconstruction of Congo (UREC). In May, Congo's security services arrested thirty men working for him and accused them of plotting a coup. The employees were later released without charge but the incident, as well as continued harassment by the authorities, have given him free publicity and newfound popularity.

He is likely to win in Provinces of Kasai Orientale and Kasai Occidental. With the decision by veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi to boycott the polls, Dr. Kashala, a native Kasai, is likely to win the votes from the two Kasai provinces.

Pierre Pay Pay

Mr. Pierre Pay Pay, 60, held several ministerial posts during Mobutu's rule. The economist, born in Sud Kivu Province, also ran the state copper company Gecamines and was once Central Bank governor. In his campaigns, Pay Pay has stressed that his age and experience in a range of posts make him more than qualified to run the DR Congo. He is chairman of the Convention of Democrats.

Azarias Ruberwa

Ruberwa is one of the four Vice Presidents. The 51-year-old comes from South Kivu and is the leader of the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD), a Rwanda-backed former rebel that became a political movement in order to take part in the transitional government set up in 2003.A lawyer by profession, Azarias Ruberwa taught law in eastern Congo and Rwanda before joining Laurent Kabila's rebel movement that overthrew Mobutu. He joined the Rwandan-backed rebels that turned on Kabila in 1998 and became president of the movement in 2002.

Although he has gained popularity by being one of the current government's more respected members and has fought against corruption, the Protestant pastor has struggled to jettison the tag of a Rwandan stooge because of his Tutsi origins and RCD's close links with Kigali. Azarias Ruberwa, who comes from a minority community of Banyamulenge, almost has no chance to win the elections. But being a former militia leader supported by Rwanda has strengthened his standing as a potential to win.

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