Global Policy Forum

The official results of the Democratic Republic of Congo's landmark elections confirm a strong regional division - no great surprise in a country almost as big as the whole of Western Europe.

In eastern DR Congo, incumbent President Joseph Kabila gained a landslide victory - for example, 97% of the vote in the town of Bukavu. In the west, however, former rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba won most votes - 51% in the capital, Kinshasa, compared to only 17% for Mr Kabila. Nationally, neither man managed to gain the 50% needed for victory in the first round and so the two best-placed candidates will face a run-off in October. The long delay will not please those eager for some stability after the uncertainty generated by the elections.

There have already been many complaints that it took three weeks to announce the results, and in Kinshasa, some believed that the delay was in order to give the authorities the time to rig the results in favour of President Kabila. Meanwhile, fake results were being sold on the streets, saying that Mr Bemba had won the election in the first round.

Had Mr Kabila won outright in the first round, as he almost did - with 45% of the vote - Mr Bemba's disappointed supporters would have been quick to take to the streets.

Alliances

Some observers thought the delay in announcing the results would serve to cool hot tempers and possibly avoid the feared post-election violence. The same argument is now being used about a second round. Furthermore, a run-off means the two remaining candidates will have to try to broaden their appeal beyond their core supporters - no bad thing in such a vast, fractured country trying to put an end to years of conflict.

"It's going to force both men to build alliances," said Caty Clement, the Central Africa project director at the International Crisis Group think-tank. "If we end up with two big blocks opposing each other, that's the idea behind democracy."

However, the danger of renewed violence is still present. If a reminder was needed, this came when at least five people were killed in a gun battle between security forces loyal to Mr Kabila and Mr Bemba near the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) headquarters just as the results were due to be announced. An election official said that sporadic shots could still be heard on Monday and so workers were unable to get to their offices to update the website.

Frustration

Mr Bemba and other former rebel leaders who contested the polls retain their own personal security forces and the fear is that in a country with no democratic tradition, the losers will cry foul and take up their arms once more. So far, however, this has not happened. The international community has invested enormous amounts of time and money in these elections and diplomats have been urging the losers to accept the results and try again in five years' time.

In any case, their frustration will be tempered over the next few months, as they are courted by the two remaining candidates. Mr Kabila will start as favourite for the second round, after gaining 45% of the vote, compared to Mr Bemba's 20%. In eastern DR Congo, where most of the fighting took place in the five-year war, he is credited with ending the worst of the conflict. His family has its roots in this Swahili-speaking region, further boosting his local appeal.

Mr Bemba, by contrast, is associated as a former rebel leader with the worst atrocities of the conflict. Easterners are quick to bring up the allegations of cannibalism and other war crimes made against his forces.

Dirty campaign

However, westerners, who use Lingala as their lingua franca, have long dominated DR Congo and they have come together behind Mr Bemba. It is quite possible that an anti-Kabila alliance could be formed. Ask Kinshasa residents why they support Mr Bemba and their first answer is usually simple: "He is Congolese."

Mr Kabila grew up in Tanzania, while his father, the late President Laurent Kabila, was trying to mobilise support against former leader Mobutu Sese Seko. Some supporters of Mr Bemba even question whether Joseph Kabila is really Laurent Kabila's son. With such strong nationalistic feelings running high, a peaceful second round is still not a certainty.

There will no doubt be some more equally dirty campaigning ahead before DR Congo finally gets its first popularly elected leader in 40 years. And then he can finally begin the daunting task of rebuilding a country where nearly everything has to be done from scratch after years of conflict and gross mismanagement.

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