Global Policy Forum

By Chris Simpson

Kigali - Despite Richard Holbrooke's calls for a fresh drive for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), there seems little evidence of a new entente between the protagonists. Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC) leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, who joined other rebel leaders, Emile Ilunga and Ernest Wamba dia Wamba for talks with the US Ambassador to the UN in Kampala, Uganda, on Dec 10, has already accused Congolese President Laurent Kabila of staging a new offensive in the north-west.

Speaking from his headquarters in Gbadolite, Bemba told IPS this week that Kabila had taken over the town of Nkonya in the north-western region of Equateur. "This is part of a general offensive which has been going on since October 15", Bemba said. But he claimed Kabila had suffered far worse casualties than the rebels, with the MLC killing 119 Congolese government (FAC) and allied soldiers and taking another 135 prisoner, while losing only two its own soldiers.

500 kilometres south-east of Nkonya, but still in Equateur, moves are supposedly underway to resolve the problems at Ikela. Despite reports from the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) and the Rwandan government last week that a deal had been cut enabling Zimbabwe to get access to its troops behind RCD lines in return for withdrawing from Bokungu, the Zimbabwean denied any such agreement had been reached.

RCD Vice-President Moise Nyarugabo told IPS Monday that the rebels had approached the Lusaka-based Joint Military Commission (JMC) to try and secure a breakthrough. But there has been no word of any JMC initiative on the matter. The focus now shifts again from the battlefield to the issue of who will act as ''facilitator'' in the DRC's ''national debate'' or ''inter-Congolese dialogue''. Rebel delegations were due to convene in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa Tuesday under the auspices of OAU Secretary-General Salim Ahmed Salim to announce their choice.

Strong favourite is now former Botswanan President Sir Quett Masire, who appears to be the rebels' second choice following Nelson Mandela's decision to act as mediator in neighbouring Burundi. A swift agreement on Masire would boost the rebels' stock abroad, with US Ambassador to the UN, Holbrooke, having made it clear US support for an expanded UN peacekeeping operation is dependent on a rapid consensus on the choice of facilitator. It would also leave the onus on Laurent Kabila to come up with a clear choice. Reports from the DRC capital of Kinshasa indicate the Congolese President is still angling for former Beninois leader Emile Derlin Zinsou or the Rome-based Saint Egidio organisation, both already vetoed by the rebels. Kabila had long made it clear he would not tolerate Mandela's nomination, but has yet to come out for or against Masire. The Congolese daily Le Potentiel said Tuesday that Kabila appeared to have no serious objections to Masire, but pointed out Masire's neutrality might be compromised by his involvement in the OAU panel on the Rwandan genocide.

Kabila's talks with Holbrooke in Kinshasa on Saturday were followed by a closing address by the Congolese leader to participants at the ''Fortnight of Patriotic Awakening''. Kabila urged his audience to embrace its patriotic duties, arguing: "while resisting aggression, we can overcome the aggressors and resume the reconstruction of our country and the democratisation process which was temporarily abandoned because of this ignoble aggression that nobody wants". Kabila was in Windhoek, Namibia Sunday with Presidents Sam Nujoma of Namibia and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and the Angolan Defence Minister for what looked like a post-Holbrooke assessment of where Kabila and his allies go from now. A joint communique issued after the meeting highlighted the need for a UN peacekeeping force to be deployed as quickly as possible.

Reports from Kinshasa indicate that Holbrooke's visit did not trigger a US-Congolese showdown. In his remarks to the press, Holbrooke declined to be drawn on who took most responsibility for the failure to implement Lusaka, arguing that ceasefire violations had been carried out by all parties and were "not interesting".

Prior to Holbrooke's arrival, Congolese Foreign Minister Yerodia Abdoulaye Ndombasi had warned that Lusaka stood no chance of being implemented "if the Ugandan, Rwandan and Burundian occupation troops of aggression do not immediately and unconditionally withdraw from the country". Yerodia added there would be "no inter-Congolese dialogue under the boots of the occupiers" and hinted Holbrooke had his priorities wrong. Not surprisingly, the US Envoy was not treated to a reiteration of these arguments while in Kinshasa. Holbrooke himself stressed again that the choice of a facilitator was of fundamental importance at this stage, emphasising that the failure to secure agreement on this, relatively straightforward issue, would have grave consequences for the whole peace process.

The conflict in the DRC erupted in August 1998, after Kabila ordered the remaining Rwandan troops and military instructors who helped him to overthrow the late President Mobutu Sese Seko in May 1997, out of the country. Since then, the conflict has sucked in five African countries, with Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe supporting Kabila, and Rwanda and Uganda backing the rebels.

Holbrooke's 12-day tour of Zambia, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Mali, South Africa, Tunisia, and the DRC, which began ten days ago, focuses on consolidating peace in the DRC.