September 1, 2000
Summary
East Timor's former guerrilla Falintil forces may soon begin hunting down pro-Indonesia militia both inside East Timor and across the border in West Timor, according to two prominent East Timorese leaders. At a time when Australia and New Zealand are seeking an exit strategy from East Timor, the threat to peace and security is increasingly coming from both sides of the conflict. If U.N. forces withdraw, a cross border war is likely to break out. However, if they stay, U.N. forces may find themselves in an uncomfortable position, requiring a change in role from peacekeepers to peacemakers.
Analysis
Jose Alexandre Gusmao, a former leader of Falintil, the East Timor guerrilla army, has proffered a solution to the increasing cross-border activities of pro-Indonesian militias into East Timor. Responding to a question in an interview for the Sep. 4 issue of Newsweek, Gusmao said that to counter the militia threat from across the border, "we should strike back and destroy them inside West Timor."
Gusmao's comments were downplayed by another top East Timorese leader, Jose Ramos-Horta. However, Ramos-Horta warned that Falintil guerrillas, who have remained armed but cloistered in a U.N.-designated cantonment south of Dili, are growing frustrated at the apparent inability of U.N. forces to counter the militia threats. He warned that elements of Falintil might leave their base, "freelancing and hunting down the militia on their own," according to Sydney Morning Herald.
The threat to peace and stability in East Timor is now coming not only from pro-Indonesian militia, but also from the pro-independence forces the U.N. was originally deployed to protect. Political squabble between East Timorese leaders and U.N. officials have broken out several times since the independence vote in August 1999. The political differences now threaten to devolve into the security sphere.
East Timor's U.N. administrator, Sergio Vieira de Mello, quickly responded to Gusmao's and Ramos-Horta's comments. He warned against "using the same tactics as thugs and criminals" and reiterated the sanctity of international borders. In an effort to stem the possible resurgence in violence - and prepare for the worst - U.N. troops have beefed up security along the border and are offering to recruit Falintil scouts.
Indonesia too has responded to the potential for cross-border fighting into West Timor, dispatching more Strategic Reserve (Kostrad) forces to the border. Maj. Gen. Kiki Syahnakri, the regional commander from Indonesia's armed forces, warned that any move by Falintil guerrillas to cross over into West Timor would be considered an invasion, according to Indonesia's Antara news agency. Kiki stated that technically and tactically the Indonesian armed forces were ready to defend the territory from any threats.
As U.N. operations in East Timor near one year, Australia and New Zealand, key contributors to the peacekeeping operations, are seeking an exit strategy from East Timor. Both nations' governments fear an indefinite deployment would drain their military budgets and undermine domestic political support. Already in the past two months two U.N. peacekeepers have been killed in fighting with militia. Even before these deaths, Australia and New Zealand raised concerns that their commitment to East Timor will prevent them from having adequate forces available for other potential operations in Asia.
The U.N. forces are in a difficult situation, however. As the nation moves toward true independence, U.N. peacekeepers will hand over security responsibilities to a new East Timor defense force - made up primarily of former Falintil guerrillas. The withdrawal of U.N. troops removes the buffer between the long-time adversaries, likely leading to a renewal of fighting and a cross-border war.
However, even if U.N. forces remain in East Timor, the situation is rapidly deteriorating. U.N. forces may soon be as engaged in stopping former Falintil guerrillas that challenge pro-Indonesian militia. And, more significantly, if elements of the Falintil do cross over into Indonesia, U.N. forces could be confronted with an even greater challenge - keeping the Indonesian military from entering the fray.
