Global Policy Forum

By Evelyn Leopold

Secretary-General Kofi Annan cautioned the Security Council not to withdraw U.N. civilian and military personnel from East Timor prematurely, saying the territory would need help well after independence.

In a Monday report to the Security Council, Annan said that once East Timor had established a government, expected later this year, some peacekeepers could be withdrawn gradually, while those near Indonesian West Timor might have to stay longer. "Given the uncertain outlook on security, it would be prudent to maintain the military components, essentially in its present form, until the East Timor government has established itself," he said. The force now numbers 8,000.

The territory, which once had 800,000 residents, expects to elect an assembly to draw up a constitution this summer, a prelude to independence, which is expected next year. Once a new government is in place, Annan said the military component could be reviewed again. In the meantime, he said, there was "a widely shared fear among the population that the political process may not remain peaceful." Pervasive poverty and unemployment have created conditions that make it "relatively easy to incite people to violence, notably disaffected youth," he said.

East Timor, a former Portuguese colony invaded by Indonesia in 1975, voted for independence in a U.N.-organized ballot in August 1999. In protest, militia, supported by the Indonesian army, went on the rampage, killing, burning and herding hundreds of thousands of people across the border to Indonesian-ruled West Timor.

ELECTORAL VIOLENCE FORESEEN

Annan said U.N. peacekeepers were gearing up for militia violence ahead of the Aug. 30 elections for a new governing assembly. While the level of violence along the border is low compared with six months ago, the militia "remain a force to be reckoned with," he said. "The situation remains unpredictable," he said. "The pro-Indonesian militias based in West Timor have continued to advocate armed struggle to bring East Timor into Indonesia and have not laid down their arms," he said.

Annan also said the United Nations would send a security team to West Timor this month to assess whether aid workers could return to refugee camps. None have been there since a mob, led by militia, murdered three members of the staff of the U.N. refugee commission in the border town of Atambua.

An Indonesian court in Jakarta on Friday sentenced three men to prison terms of up to 20 months, sparking an international outcry against the light sentences. Annan said Indonesia had furthered procedures to give the refugees a chance to return home. But it has not carried out promises to disarm the militia, intimidating East Timorese in the camps. About 100,000 East Timorese are living in camps in West Timor, some against their will, an embarrassing symbol for the United Nations and Indonesia.