May 29, 2001
The Indian cease-fire in Kashmir was obviously never going to result in a peaceful resolution to the many problems in that disputed, divided territory. Thus, it must be welcome news that India has decided to reverse a dead-end policy and seek new ways to stop the Kashmir rot. In the end, the Kashmir problem is a border dispute between the two South Asian giants. Only New Delhi and Islamabad can find an agreeable way to solve the 50-year-old Kashmir conflict.
The question is whether either country can find the fortitude to move forward on this dangerous altercation. Our region will be watching to see if India and Pakistan are serious in their coming talks. Along with North Korea and the Spratly islands, the India-Pakistan border is one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia. The entire world has a stake in the talks as India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.
Even the offer of talks by India must be seen as a step forward, as was the virtually instant acceptance by Pakistan. Getting talks under way, however, has seldom been difficult in the sub-continent. India's current prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, was an architect of the so-called "bus diplomacy", when he drove to Pakistan for talks in Lahore.
Much has happened since that dramatic bus journey and tearful hugs between Indian and Pakistani leaders. The elected prime minister of Pakistan was overthrown in a military coup. Indian and Pakistani forces fought a running battle along the Kashmir frontier that came within a whisker of escalating into war and nuclear confrontation. India has tried, and failed, to woo separatists and terrorists in Kashmir with a cease-fire and peace talks.
A pessimist, then, might view Mr Vajpayee's change of heart as just another token. That would be wrong. For one thing, Mr Vajpayee's unexpected offer of talks with the dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf is a brave repudiation of the Hindu extremists who back his political power. The moderate line of Mr Vajpayee on Muslim Kashmir deserves notice and credit. Pakistan, under civilian and military governments alike, has always claimed the right to discuss the future of Kashmir.
The real question now is whether India and Pakistan are willing to negotiate seriously. An agreement on Kashmir will be agonising and ultimately painful on both sides. The colonial decision to split the "jewel in the crown" into two parts has left New Delhi and Islamabad with difficult choices. Heavy pride is involved, and it is understandable that both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir. Still, the reality is that Kashmir is a divided, violent place which cannot know peace unless the controlling powers negotiate seriously.
Pakistan has always claimed ownership of Kashmir for reasons of religion and culture. As a result, Islamabad has always resisted discussions on specific problems in the territory. On the other hand, India has long felt Kashmir's problems must be discussed one small step at a time. But New Delhi has resisted all calls for an outside negotiator to help the two sides move forward in their negotiations.
In the end, India and Pakistan must decide the fate of Kashmir. But India will certainly have to allow Kashmiri political groups to state their own goals. New Delhi should work hard to keep the terrorists out of talks. Pakistan can, and must, help to end the terrorism in Kashmir.
The role of Thailand, the United Nations and other countries is to be supportive of the new peace process. Conflict between Pakistan and India is one of the greatest dangers to peace and stability in the region. A war would involve nuclear confrontation and a strong likelihood of the use of these terrible weapons. It will take a serious effort by both countries to reach a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir problem. Let us hope that the two countries are up to the task.
