Global Policy Forum

By Ekram Kabir

Both Musharraf and Vajpayee understand that the Kashmir dispute severely restricts their national goals, yet neither leader can, even if they wanted to, offer substantial concessions to the other side. That's the reality between these two countries

The outcome of Agra talks between Pakistani president, Parvez Musharraf and Indian prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, was anybody's guess. Over the issue of Kashmir, talks were bound to fail, feared many. After all, the Kashmir dispute has become a scapegoat for the rulers, including civil-military bureaucracy, in both New Delhi and Islamabad. If the history is any guide, the dispute has now become a matter of "bread and butter" for the armies in both the countries. It is often argued that if the dispute is resolved, India and Pakistan will have to dispense with over two million men in uniform; defence budgets will be slashed. Above all, there would be no source of fear or insecurity, which could be exploited as a justification for huge arms purchases the two countries have indulged in over the last 54 years.

However, the meeting may not yield any substantial change in the status of Kashmir but it has certainly set in motion a dialogue that may reduce tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. ''The summit has created such hype that the entire world is watching us,'' Pakistan's The News quoted Musharraf as saying even before the meet in Agra. ''We must meet with an open mind, remove the main irritant.''

On the other hand, Vajpayee was quoted as saying, ''We have to move ahead to the future. I hope President Musharraf will bring to the summit meeting a desire to bury the conflicts of the past and to build a new relationship.''

Control of Kashmir has been a major point of contention between New Delhi and Islamabad since 1947. The two nations have fought two wars over the area. In 1999, fighting in the Kargil area along the Line of Control (LoC), dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan, nearly escalated into another war that would have pitted two new nuclear powers against each other. According to Agence France-Presse, Islamic separatists fighting for Kashmir's secession from India have killed more than 35,000 people during a 10-year campaign.

Musharraf and Vajpayee went to Agra under very different circumstances. Musharraf, since taking power in Pakistan in October 1999 coup, has struggled to revive Pakistan's ailing economy. At the same time, India has steadily grown in importance as a regional power, holding joint naval exercises in the South China Sea with and receiving diplomatic overtures from the United States.

Both Musharraf and Vajpayee understand that the Kashmir dispute severely restricts their national goals, yet neither leader can, even if they wanted to, offer substantial concessions to the other side. That's the reality between these two countries.

Pakistan's economy remains a major problem for Musharraf, who has been trying to attract foreign aid and investment to avoid defaulting on Islamabad's international loans. With separatist violence in the region contributing to an appearance of instability, the Kashmir issue makes Pakistan less appealing to investors and lenders. The Pak government is also forced to make large military expenditures in order to match India's much larger armed forces.

Musharraf wanted to gain international recognition for contributing to peace and stability in South Asia through Agra summit and thereby increase Pakistan's chances for economic aid and investment. But he is restricted in how much he can concede to India. Musharraf's recent assumption of the presidency was not a sign of his strength, say Pakistanis, but was prompted by increasing pressure from within the military and government.

However, there is a limited window of opportunity for Musharraf to win international support for his move toward a solution of Kashmir problem. He has pledged to hold elections in October 2002 and return Pakistan to democratic rule. With his image already tarnished by the 1999 coup and his unilateral move to assume the presidency, Musharraf will have to fulfil his vow to hold elections or risk further alienating Pakistan from international economic assistance.

While Musharraf's main motivation to attend the summit was economic, Indian prime minister had a broader goal: establishing India as not only a regional power but also perhaps a global one. Since the end of the cold war, India has moved steadily from its former position as a "neutral country" or "supporter of a major superpower" to "a prominent force in its own right". India has recently embarked on a "Look East" policy, extending its economic, political and military influence into Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. Moreover, the US government, a former supporter of Pakistan (India's rival), has turned its attention to improving ties with India, looking at New Delhi as a counterbalance to China.

While it appeared there was no room for compromise between India and Pakistan at Agra, the mutual desire to find a common solution created an opening for dialogue at many levels (most importantly at the head of state level when PM Vajpayee visits Pakistan within this year) that could help reduce tensions between the nuclear neighbours.Both Musharraf and Vajpayee appeared to agree on one thing about Kashmir: that Islamic militants should be minimised in any solution. Both leaders were looking to more moderate political forces in the region to eventually enter into the dialogue process, something necessary for a lasting peace.

Like Musharraf said in his speech: "I am deeply committed to finding a path towards normal relations between our countries. I would like communications to open, trade to flourish, mindsets to change and stereotypes to disappear. The children of Pakistan and India must not be made to live under the constant shadow of conflict."